INTERVIEW | Nic Robertson, CNN’s experienced international diplomatic editor, says he doesn’t know how long a ceasefire will last in Gaza, he sees it as likely that one of the parties will break it, but what “impresses” him most about these recent 440 days of conflict is “ the inability of the world’s most powerful nation to persuade one of its closest allies to reach a peace agreement before more deaths.” Donald Trump will navigate this conflict — and he has “credits to claim”. But first, with Biden, as in the future, with Trump, Nic Robertson hoped that the US “would be able to put pressure on Israel, as it has done in the past.”
The ceasefire agreement was announced this Wednesday. And since then, a lot has happened.
There was blood, with Israeli attacks on Gaza killing 116 people, including 30 children, and injuring more than two hundred. And there was discord too. In Israel. The security cabinet approved the ceasefire and hostage release agreement, hoping “that the Government will do so soon as well”, and the President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, declared the approval “a vital step”. But not everyone is agreement. As is the case of the influential Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, who tried everything – and still tries – to collapse the agreement, because, says Gvir, “the terrorists will try to do harm again, kill another person. time”.
According to Israeli television, Channel 12, Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, only got approval from the security cabinet because he “lied”. Thus, he told those members that the army will soon return to fighting, right after the first phase of the ceasefire. A first phase that begins Sunday, with the release by Hamas of three civilian women.
In total, during the first six weeks, Hamas will release 33 hostages, including all women, civilian or military, children and men over the age of 50. The Israeli side, in turn, committed to releasing 30 Palestinians for each Israeli civilian released and 50 Palestinians for each Israeli soldier released. In total, Israel is expected to release between 990 and 1,650 Palestinian detainees.
CNN’s international diplomatic editor says the ceasefire is “important” for numerous reasons, but above all because it “provides a moment for other initiatives and peace efforts to gain strength.” However, says Nic Robertson, the agreement is also ” extremely fragile.” “If there is no agreement for phases two and three by then, the agreement will expire, and that is a very real risk.”
A ceasefire agreement alone will not resolve a conflict like this, but how important could the agreement, or principle of agreement, be in the short term?
It is important because it will allow humanitarian aid to reach Gaza, which is urgently needed. It’s important because people in Gaza have been under bombardment since October 8, 2023, for more than 440 days, they are desperate for a break.
It is important for the families of all the Israeli hostages, who have been waiting so desperately for their loved ones, constantly fearing that they could die at any moment.
And it’s important because a pause in war itself provides a moment for other peace initiatives and efforts to gain momentum. It is very difficult to create traction when the bombing and fighting continues.
And how long can this break last? Or, to put the question another way, what could lead to the collapse of the ceasefire?
One of the things that could lead to collapse is the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from more right-wing members of his governing coalition, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who together have 15 deputies who support the current government. . If they decide they are not satisfied with the direction of the agreement, they could withdraw support for the government, creating uncertainty.
Furthermore, even when the ceasefire process is underway, there is a strong possibility that any time that, in Israel’s eyes, Hamas violates the terms of the agreement, Benjamin Netanyahu will resume the war. Netanyahu has already indicated that he believes he has the support of both President Biden and President-elect Donald Trump to resume the war against Hamas. This is a real risk.
There is also the possibility of something going wrong during exchanges. One party may feel that the other is failing. If on the Palestinian side, Hamas feels that the right prisoners are not being released, or that the agreed number is not being met, they could back out of the deal, which would likely lead to the release of more hostages being suspended.
Therefore, it is extremely fragile. And of course, after the 16th day of the ceasefire, when the second and third phases – the steps towards permanent peace – were supposed to be negotiated, the clock starts counting down to the 42nd day. If there is no agreement for phases two and three by then, the agreement will expire, and that is a very real risk.
What role did neighboring countries play in this agreement? And why does Qatar — the main mediating country — this time seem to have achieved results where others have failed in the past?
Qatar resisted the temptation to abandon the negotiations, even when it was heavily criticized by Benjamin Netanyahu or other Israeli politicians. They remained faithful to the mission they assumed – to be interlocutors and negotiators.
The same can be said of Egyptian officials, but it appears that the bulk of the work was carried out by Qataris. It’s not so much about what changed for the negotiators, but rather the fact that they persevered.
At the same time, Hamas’s capacity as a fighting force is profoundly reduced. Palestinians living in Gaza are largely emotionally and psychologically devastated. They are short of food, fuel, shelter and, frankly, hope.
What has also changed is the international political landscape around Qatar and Egypt, as well as the dynamics in the United States, which now influence this context.
Let’s talk about the United States. President Biden appeared uncomfortable with some of the credit Donald Trump claimed for this ceasefire. Which one actually had a bigger role now? And what is expected in the conflict when Donald Trump returns to the White House?
I think it’s too early to say who played a bigger role. History will clear that up, to be perfectly honest.
Donald Trump’s actions when he takes office will say a lot. In this sense, it is clear that the United States, under President Biden’s government, was unable to bring the Israeli government to a compromise position. However, when President-elect Donald Trump declared that if there is no peace in Gaza by the time he takes office, “there will be serious consequences”, this appears to have had a deterrent effect on both parties.
Hamas appears to have understood that Trump could give Israel carte blanche to continue attacking them. And for the Israeli prime minister there is also a lot at stake in the relationship with the next US president, both in political and personal terms. Netanyahu needs to keep this relationship strong, especially as he faces legal proceedings that could put him at risk of arrest.
Furthermore, Netanyahu wants Trump to help him achieve the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, destroy Iran’s ability to threaten the region and its allies, and stop Iran’s nuclear program. He believes that by sticking with Trump, he will be closer to achieving these goals.
So Trump does, in fact, have some credit to claim. However, much of the previous work was done by the Biden administration. Diplomats, intelligence chiefs and the secretary of state [Antony Blinken] They were involved in intense diplomacy, creating the general terms of the ceasefire and hostage exchanges we see today.
In the long term, what Trump does during his administration will be decisive in assessing the extent of his impact.
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In Oslo, Norway, delegates from more than 80 countries participated these days in a meeting of the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. Will peace remain a utopia without this solution – one state for the Jews and another for the Arabs?
This is the dominant opinion in the region and the world. The White House has insisted to Netanyahu that without a two-state solution, there will be no lasting peace.
Israeli leaders often say they do not want to repeat past mistakes, such as giving Hamas any political opportunity, because they fear further attacks. However, there is a global consensus that, by denying the Palestinians a state, Israel perpetuates the same mistakes and the same cycles of violence.
In the region, the pressure to achieve a two-state solution is enormous. For example, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has declared that there will be no normalization with Israel without a Palestinian state.
Donald Trump’s role in this scenario will be relevant, but it seems inevitable that regional stability depends on the achievement of this long-term objective.
Today, as CNN’s international diplomatic editor, Nic covers this long conflict and many others. As a journalist, what impresses you most about Gaza?
What strikes me most is the incapacity of the most powerful nation in the world [EUA]who represents democratic values, to persuade one of his closest allies to reach a peace agreement before more deaths.
I would never have imagined, a year and a half ago, that this scenario would be possible. I hoped that the United States would be able to pressure Israel, as it has done in the past, to avoid the scale of bloodshed that we saw in Gaza.
Although the Hamas attack was horrific, with more than 1,200 Israelis killed and more than 250 taken hostage, the US inability to moderate Israel’s response and prevent the deaths of more than 46,000 Palestinians is surprising.
