ANALYSIS || This is not a definitive end to the war nor is the freedom of the 65 hostages guaranteed
Do not be fooled by Israel’s approval of the ceasefire in Gaza: there are deep divisions in Israeli politics that could threaten the longevity of the agreement.
The ceasefire, as agreed in Qatar, is expected to last 42 days. During this period, 33 hostages are expected to be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, there will be a slow withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from Gaza’s urban centers and an increase in humanitarian aid.
The Israeli government approved the agreement with Hamas after seven hours of deliberations among the 33 members that make up the Council of Ministers, which lasted until early Saturday morning, the Jewish day of rest, Shabbat.
But this is not a definitive end to the war, nor does it guarantee the freedom of the 65 hostages who would remain in Gaza at the end of this first phase – many of whom will probably be dead. This will still have to be negotiated, starting on the 16th day of the truce.
Its achievement may be dictated by the whims of Israeli politics. The deal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to is very similar to a proposal he has railed against for nearly a year.
“We do not commit to any of Hamas’s illusory demands,” said the Israeli prime minister in February last year. “I told the [secretário de Estado dos EUA] Antony Blinken that we are almost achieving total victory.”
The proposal he criticized envisaged a ceasefire in several phases, the phased withdrawal of Israeli troops and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. It turns out that this is exactly what Netanyahu has now accepted.
Although Hamas is undeniably weakened, Israel has not achieved the “complete victory” that Netanyahu promised long ago. “We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” Blinken said this week.
Netanyahu’s extremist allies in the government are confused by his sudden about-face.
“I love Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I will make sure he remains prime minister,” said Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security, in a statement on Friday morning. “But I’m going out. [do governo] because the agreement that was signed is disastrous.”
Ben Gvir said his party, Jewish Power, will withdraw from the government coalition if the ceasefire and hostage agreement is approved. His departure would not, in itself, be enough to overthrow the government. And he could very well return – it will be difficult to step away from power for a man who not long ago was on the fringes of politics, having been convicted of inciting terrorism and considered so extremist that the Israeli army rejected him for military service.
But what could bring down the government is the fact that Ben Gvir joins Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in withdrawing from Netanyahu’s coalition. Smotrich, also a far-right nationalist, wants to make sure that peace in Gaza is not permanent and that Israel returns to war after the 42-day ceasefire that is expected to free 33 hostages.
While Smotrich’s departure could break Netanyahu’s coalition, his government could be saved from rival Yair Lapid of the opposition Yesh Atid party, who has thrown a political lifeline to the prime minister by supporting him in the legislature. This means that Lapid would have a sword over Netanyahu’s neck, could bring down the government and trigger elections whenever he wanted – a threat that the prime minister will certainly do everything to avoid.
It is unclear whether Netanyahu made any promises to Smotrich to secure his support – resolving today’s crisis is more important than resolving tomorrow’s. Netanyahu is clearly interested in this, having met twice with Smotrich in the hours leading up to the Qatar ceasefire announcement. President Biden said Wednesday that “the plan says if negotiations take longer than six weeks, the ceasefire will continue as long as negotiations continue.” But if Israel started bombing on the 43rd day, the agreement would fall apart.
In the hours following the Qatari prime minister’s announcement of the deal on Wednesday, Netanyahu’s office sent out a cascade of press releases accusing Hamas of reneging on promises to give Israel a veto over some prisoners. Palestinians who should be released.
The statements made it clear that he was being tough, telling his team to stand their ground. These last-minute problems may have been real – although Hamas denies this. But the fact that the Prime Minister beat his chest, in public, to give credit to his “firm position” was certainly intended to appease the internal far-right public. Once the differences were overcome, the government appears to have accelerated its approval – moving a meeting scheduled for Saturday to the last hours of Friday.
Another factor may also be at the heart of Netanyahu’s capitulation to this initial ceasefire: new American president Donald Trump.
His image as the American president who ends wars abroad will certainly put enormous pressure on Netanyahu to fulfill the agreement, for which Trump took credit and dubbed “EPIC”.
Netanyahu was able to ignore President Joe Biden’s overtures, confident that he had an even firmer ally, Trump, waiting for him.
Now you don’t have that luxury.
