Three phases and more than a month, but Netanyahu seems to be playing and the agreement may not even reach the second half
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is expected to officially begin this Sunday morning – at 8:30 am local time (6:30 am in Lisbon). The time was announced by Qatari mediators, who have played a key role in the talks, and later confirmed by Israel.
“The IDF has been preparing for following his release from Hamas captivity and is working to provide adequate physical and psychological support, with careful attention to every detail,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement, adding that the armed forces “will continue to act” to ensure the safety of Israelis in areas close to the Gaza Strip.
Less than 12 hours before the start of the ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the country in which he stated that Israel reserves the right to resume the war “if necessary”, if negotiations fail. “The battle is not over yet. If we need to return to the fight, we will do so in new and vigorous ways,” he said. “Hamas is isolated on the battlefield.”
Israel will not rest until “all of its war objectives are met,” Netanyahu said. “We will not give in until all hostages are released,” said the prime minister.
Netanyahu also spoke of the 33 hostages “coming home” as part of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement and to US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump all their support for reaching this agreement.
Before the speech, Netanyahu also said that Israel “will not move forward” with the agreement until it receives the names of the first three hostages who must be released.
A series of warnings that, added to some words from ministers who are against the agreement, increase doubts about the true intentions of the Israeli Prime Minister. The Ministers of Finance and National Security, the extremists Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, respectively, let it be known that Netanyahu promised them that he would return to war as soon as possible.
The government needs the support of the party of each of those ministers to continue to have support in parliament. Known for highly orthodox positions, Smotrich and Ben Gvir were completely opposed to the agreement, but both implied that they had been made promises for what comes after the first phase that now begins.
Meanwhile, preparations continue for the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
According to some local media, Egypt is organizing a joint operations room in Cairo, where officials from Qatar, the US and Israel would join to oversee the implementation of the ceasefire.
Aid agencies say there are thousands of pallets of food and fuel stuck at Gaza’s borders, waiting to enter. Egypt provides hospitals and medical teams, mainly in the cities of northern Sinai, to receive the wounded and sick from the Gaza Strip
Israeli forces will also withdraw to the east, away from the densely populated areas of Gaza, displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes and hundreds of aid trucks will be allowed to enter the territory daily.
This Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces will gradually withdraw from some areas of Gaza, a military official told CNN. “We will adjust our deployment and our gradual withdrawal from specific locations and routes within Gaza,” said the military officer, stressing that the final decision rests with political power.
The Israeli army provides security restrictions and recommendations to Gaza residents for when the ceasefire comes into effect. The IDF will remain deployed in parts of Gaza, the army said, advising Gazans to avoid approaching troops. “Approaching the forces puts you at risk,” the statement reads. It will be prohibited to approach Israeli territory and the “extremely dangerous” buffer zone, he declared.
What do we know about the hostages and prisoners who will be released in this first phase?
In the first phase of the agreement, which will last six weeks, 33 hostages – including women, children and the elderly – will be held by Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. The exchange should take place this Sunday afternoon.
The Israeli Ministry of Justice released a list of more than 734 prisoners and detainees. Meanwhile, Egypt issued a statement saying that 1,890 Palestinian prisoners will be released in the first phase of the ceasefire – although this could include detainees who are not under the purview of the Israeli judicial system, for example, Gazans detained by the IDF.
He does not yet know in detail the order in which the prisoners will be released, nor how many there will be at a time.
On the other hand, although it is known that 33 Israeli hostages will be released in exchange for the prisoners, it is not known what the proportion is (how many Israelis to how many Palestinians). In the previous temporary truce between Israel and Hamas in November 2023, one prisoner was released for every three hostages – it is not known what will happen this time, but the Times of Israel suggests it will vary by age and status health of the hostages.
The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to be implemented this Sunday – although Israel has warned that the truce will not move forward until Hamas releases a list of the names of the first three hostages expected to be released.
In the second phase of the ceasefire (if it goes ahead – negotiations are only expected to begin 16 days after the start of the first phase), more prisoners will be released in exchange for the remaining hostages alive.
What happens next?
The agreement will be concluded in three phases.
Talks on the terms of the second phase of the ceasefire are expected to begin on the 16th day after the first phase and will focus on achieving “a permanent end to the war, with the full withdrawal of Israeli troops and a return to a “sustainable peace.” ”.
Details of the second phase are still uncertain, but it is expected that the remaining live hostages, including men, will be released in this phase as more Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons are released.
The third and final phase involves the return of the hostages’ bodies and the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years.
But there are still unanswered questions – including which hostages are alive or dead or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of everyone who remains missing.
