Russia’s oil industry, key to the Russian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is beginning to show signs of weakening in an increasingly adverse scenario. In 2024, maritime exports of petroleum products fell by 9.1%, standing at 113.7 million tons, according to Reuters. This pronounced decline demonstrates, on the other hand, the impact of the blows received by a vital sector for Moscow to be able to maintain the pace of financing the war in Ukraine.
Precisely, the new Ukrainian military strategy has intensified direct attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure. Several drones have hit refineries located in Tuapse, Ilyich and Novoshakhtinsk. Attacks that, on the other hand, have forced the suspension of extraction operations and reduced the flow of exports. In Tuapse, shipments plummeted by 33%, reaching only 9.1 million tons, something that directly affects state giants such as Rosneftthe fifth largest Russian producer of oil-based energy products, created with the assets of the former oil giant Yukos .
Nationally, refineries processed about 267 million tons of crude oil in 2024, the lowest figure in 12 years. The sum of rising production costs, falling prices and restrictions on exports are suffocating the Russian industry. Furthermore, these drone attacks generate a psychological impact by exposing that technology can overcome the defenses of facilities considered strategic and heavily protected.
Impact also on Russian ports
The main Russian ports from which products are shipped from Russia have also recorded significant drops. Shipments from the Baltic fell by 9%, standing at 61.96 million tons, while those from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov fell by 10%, with 42.75 million tons exported. Even Arctic terminals have experienced declines of 14%, with just 1.01 million tons. In the Russian Far East, exports fell by 3%, to 7.97 million. Novorossiysk, however, managed to increase its exports by 4%, up to 19 million tons. In December, maritime exports of petroleum products experienced a rebound of 10.8%, totaling 10.37 million tons in that month.
The sanctions imposed by the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union on the oil sector have intensified pressure on the industry, with fines and blockades of some 200 vessels in the so-called “shadow fleet” and against key Russian companies. As a side effect, the price of a barrel of Brent has increased almost $5 per barrel.
The member countries of the G7, according to , They are also evaluating the possibility of reducing the price limit of $60 per barrel imposed on Russian oil, which could further exacerbate the situation in the sector. Against this backdrop, Russia faces a continuous deterioration in its export capacity, while drone attacks and restrictions have managed to shake its most important economic pillar.
