Egypt is probably the country that most depends on a single river in the world: the Nile. In a global context full of conflicts, Cairo’s main fear is not an attack by a foreign army or a terrorist threat, but rather the possibility of water shortages. This concern has become even more concrete in recent years, especially due to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Located in the Ethiopian highlands, on the Blue Nile, this monumental work represents, simultaneously, an ambition for economic development and the center of geopolitical tensions between two regional powers that, inevitably, will have to reach an understanding.
GERD is a colossal work, as revealed by . With capacity to store 74 billion cubic meters of water and hydroelectric power of 6,450 megawatts, the dam promises to transform the Ethiopian economy, but also raises fears about the impact on the flow of the Nile, which has been the basis of Egypt’s survival throughout millennia. Construction of this infrastructure began in 2013, and since then tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt have been growing. Cairo has strongly called for the work to be suspended, arguing that most of its 112 million inhabitants depend on the flow of the Nile to survive. Ethiopia, in turn, argued that the dam is essential to provide electricity for its 126 million inhabitants.
At the end of 2023, Ethiopia announced, with great enthusiasm, the completion of filling the dam, despite strong objections from Egypt and Sudan, which demanded a prior agreement on flow management mechanisms. Addis Ababa ignored these demands and, in 2024, completed construction, activating two additional turbines with the capacity to generate 400 megawatts each. These joined two other turbines already in operation, with 375 megawatts of capacity each, totaling 1,550 megawatts of energy produced.
At 145 meters high and 1.8 kilometers long, the GERD is the largest dam in Africa and one of the largest in the world. This concrete titan, as highlighted by the Spanish newspaper The Economistwas designed to provide sufficient electrical power for all of Ethiopia, as well as allowing for the export of power to neighboring countries. For Ethiopia, it is a symbol of national pride and self-sufficiency; for Egypt, it is an existential risk. “For Egyptians, the construction of the dam is an issue that threatens their existence: one of the clearest examples of a country that is a prisoner of geography. The Nile is the lifeblood of the country and its people”, said Tim Marshall, writer and specialist in geography and geopolitics.
Egypt’s greatest fear is that if Ethiopia decides to control the flow of water, this could severely jeopardize its survival. “It is not that Ethiopia intends to turn off the tap completely, but it will have the capacity to do so”, highlighted Marshall. This possibility is enough to cause concern. “Egypt is a mostly desert country, and 95% of its population lives on the banks of the Nile Delta. Cairo fears that withholding just 10% of water for a few years could leave five million farmers out of work, reduce agricultural production by half and further destabilize the country.”
Disputes over control of the Nile date back to Pharaonic times, but the construction of the GERD has raised tensions to a critical level. Ethiopia defends its right to use water resources for its development, arguing that more than 60% of its population still does not have access to electricity. Egypt, on the other hand, requires guarantees that the dam’s operation will not compromise its water needs, especially during periods of drought.
In this complex scenario, Sudan plays an intermediary role. Despite being able to benefit from the dam through better flood control and more affordable electricity, Sudan also fears the possible negative impacts of unilateral management by Ethiopia.
International diplomacy has attempted to ease tensions, but with limited results. Negotiations mediated by the United Nations, the African Union and other countries, such as the United States, have resulted in temporary agreements, without definitive solutions. Egypt has already made clear that “all options are on the table” if water flow is not guaranteed, implicitly suggesting the possibility of armed conflict.
GERD is more than a dam; It is a symbol of development, but also of dispute. For Egypt, the country’s future is intrinsically linked to the Nile, while for Ethiopia, this infrastructure represents an opportunity to overcome historical challenges of poverty and underdevelopment. The balance between these two realities will continue to challenge diplomacy and stability in the region.
Also read:
