Israeli analysts are divided over whether the ceasefire that took effect three hours late on Sunday morning will last, raising concerns amid widespread mistrust on both sides. Some are wary of the deal between Israel and Hamas because the factors that could blow it up are many, while others are more optimistic, at least for the first 42-day phase.
Although, in the context of the implementation of the first phase of the agreement, Alon Pinkas, a member of the Israeli delegation to the Israel-Syria peace talks in 2000, remains worried. Speaking to Vima, the former consul general of Israel in New York and adviser to two Israeli prime ministers (Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres), expressed his deep disbelief that the truce, which came into force one day before the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, it will develop smoothly.
“The second phase is really up in the air”
“I doubt that the truce will last and that the second phase of the agreement will be able to be implemented,” emphatically notes Mr. Pinkas. “The reasons are multifactorial: the situation in Gaza, the fact that Hamas is scattered without a real command structure, but also the fact that Israel wants the ceasefire to collapse,” he explains.
He is not optimistic about the return of the hostages to Israel either (in the first phase, 33 Hamas hostages are expected to be freed in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons). “The hostages are returning in groups of three to four people in the first phase, while the second phase is really up in the air,” continues Mr. Pinkas. He predicts the “continuation of the war by Hamas” and the current state of “desolation and destruction” in Gaza.
“Nor are Israeli forces going to withdraw from Gaza since it is doubtful whether there will be a second phase of the ceasefire,” he adds.
“Gaza needs a credible Palestinian government”
The blackmailed resignation of far-right National Security Minister Ben Gvir from the governing coalition in Israel may not last, reckons Mr. Pinkas. “If the truce collapses, Gvir will return to the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If he doesn’t, then Israel will be led to elections,” he says, judging Netanyahu’s re-election as “particularly doubtful” in this case.
Gerson Baskin’s approach to the developments initiated by the achievement of the truce in Gaza is different. The Israeli columnist – who in 2006 mediated the release of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who had been held hostage by Hamas for five years – believes that the agreement will be concluded “normally for the time being. Both sides want the first 42 days to go smoothly.”
However, Mr. Baskin cannot predict what Hamas will do next. “He knows that if he continues to control Gaza, there will be no money for reconstruction. Gaza needs a credible Palestinian government that will not be Hamas,” he tells Vima.
The questions about Barghouti
Many are wondering if Palestinian political leader Marwan Barghouti, “the world’s most important prisoner,” according to the Economist, will be among the Palestinian prisoners released in the first phase of the truce. Hamas, Egypt and Qatar are pushing for his release, as he is considered the ideal person to rally all Palestinian tendencies and forces and lead the post-Hamas era in Gaza.
“Israel does not want to release Barghouti. His release is therefore uncertain, even though a neighboring country is strongly pushing for it,” says Mr. Baskin.
