ANALYSIS || Battered by 15 months of assaults on its positions, Hamas managed to recruit almost as many fighters as it lost. In Israel there are those who see all this as a defeat, which is why Netanyahu made a promise: a simple break in the ceasefire means a return to war
Israel’s longest war has so far failed to destroy its main enemy, Hamas, which, despite having suffered devastating losses, is viewing the Gaza ceasefire agreement as a victory for itself – and a failure for Israel.
Shortly after the ceasefire came into effect on Sunday, masked gunmen appeared in vehicles and drove through the devastated streets of Gaza to celebrate. Members of an elite unit wore their full uniform in Al Saraya Square in Gaza City during the transfer of hostages. Hamas remembered that its armed wing was still present 15 months after Israel decided to destroy it.
One of Hamas’ main objectives in taking around 250 hostages during its brazen October 7, 2023 attack on Israel was to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israeli jails. As Israel bombed Gaza in response, Hamas promised not to return the hostages until Israel withdrew its forces from the enclave, permanently ended the war and allowed reconstruction.
After more than a year of fighting, Hamas and Israel reached a phased agreement in recent days that provides for the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in addition to a 42-day ceasefire and the entry of aid. The agreement also opens the door to new negotiations that could lead to a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire.
“The agreement meets all the conditions… the resistance got what the Palestinian people want,” senior Hamas member Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera after the deal was reached.
Khalil Al Hayya, Hamas’s chief negotiator, said in a speech on Wednesday that Israel had failed to achieve its war aims and praised Hamas’ armed wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, whose spokesman Abu Obaida praised the war. in Gaza as an “inspiration” for future generations. Israel’s main objective in the conflict was to eliminate Hamas.
Some Israeli ministers, lawmakers and even a small minority of hostage families see acceptance of a deal as an Israeli defeat. Far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his party resigned from the government and the Knesset (parliament), calling the truce a “surrender”. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, also right-wing, called the deal “catastrophic” and a group of army reservists labeled it the “Surrender Agreement.”
“When we see (…) the dances in Gaza, the celebrations in the villages of Judea and Samaria, we understand which side surrendered in this agreement,” Ben Gvir said in a statement on Thursday, referring to the areas which Israel calls the West Bank.
But most Israelis welcome the agreement, including most of the hostages’ families, President Isaac Herzog and the political opposition. Netanyahu’s office said after the security cabinet approved the deal that the prime minister still “supports the achievement of war objectives.”
A source familiar with the matter revealed to CNN that Netanyahu told ministers that the US had given assurances “that if Hamas sabotages a certain phase of the agreement, Israel can resume the fight.”
Hamas’ survival is a defeat for Israel
Israel’s response to Hamas’s October 7 attack was intense, having leveled Gaza with the most severe bombing campaign in the enclave’s history, killing tens of thousands of Palestinians and displacing hundreds of thousands of others, many of whom were forced to flee. living in tents with little food and inadequate medical care.
Israel also inflicted heavy losses on Hamas, killing its top leaders, including the mastermind of the October 7 attack, Yahya Sinwar, and claimed to have killed thousands of the group’s fighters. He was relentless in eradicating militants who reappeared in previously deactivated neighborhoods, while fighting and eventually defeating Lebanese Hezbollah in the north, which had opened a new front against Israel in support of Gaza.
Hamas, which once controlled the Gaza Strip militarily and politically, was reduced to a fraction of what it was after Israel’s 15-month campaign, and with the significant weakening of its regional allies, Hezbollah and Iran, the group was left isolated at regional level.
However, the movement has continued to present itself to Palestinians as the most formidable armed resistance group against Israel, replenishing its ranks by recruiting almost as many new militants as those it lost.
“Every time Israel ends its military operations and retreats, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there is nothing left to fill the void,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently, speaking at the Atlantic Council.
“In fact, we consider that Hamas recruited almost as many new militants as it lost. This is a recipe for lasting insurrection and perpetual war.”
Tahani Mustafa, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), argues that the suffering inflicted on Gaza’s Palestinians by Israel’s war creates fertile ground for recruitment.
“We can see an increase in recruitment precisely because, when there is occupation and violence, it is possible to find relevance”, he explains to CNN. “How can entire groups of segments of the Gaza population, who have lost everything, be expected to simply accept the situation idly? It’s a war for survival. Groups like Hamas provide [aos palestinianos] the means to do so.”
In his comments to the Atlantic Council, Blinken said the US has emphasized to the Israeli government “that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political rise for the Palestinians , Hamas or something equally abominable and dangerous will rise again.”
Hamas promises to rebuild itself
The post-war governance of Gaza remains unaddressed, possibly due to skepticism about the possibility of the ceasefire agreement moving beyond the initial phase. Israel’s ultimate war goal is the total destruction of Hamas. But Hamas appears unconcerned, suggesting that its cadres will play a role in rebuilding the devastated enclave. “The entire population, and the resistance as part of it, will begin to rebuild what the occupation destroyed,” Hamas’s Hamdan told Al Jazeera.
Hamdan said that regardless of the outcome, the next day for Gaza will be similar to the day before.
“The day after is like today, it’s like the day before… it will be a Palestinian day,” Hamdan said.
Although Hamas may be claiming victory, it has failed to force Israel to lift the crippling siege on Gaza and has presided over Israeli attacks that have killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and made Gaza uninhabitable. The October 7 attack and the war it triggered had a ripple effect, significantly altering the regional balance of power and fundamentally reshaping the region.
Hamas does not see its survival as an objective in this war, but for Israel, the group’s very survival can be considered a “defeat,” said ICG’s Mustafa.
