Since last week, when Trump announced preparations for a meeting with Vladimir Putin, there has been intense discussion about the possible date and place of their meeting. Helsinki, where the two leaders met seven years ago, is no longer an option. Due to the Hague arrest warrant for Putin, the Russian side is reportedly considering Kazakhstan as a possible alternative.
The Kremlin said it welcomed President-elect Donald Trump’s willingness to negotiate, but added that plans for any face-to-face meeting would be made after his inauguration.
“President Putin has repeatedly stated that he is open to contacts with international leaders, including the US president, including Donald Trump,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “No conditions are required for this, only a mutual desire and political will to conduct a dialogue is required,” he states.
Trump responded directly to these words. “President Putin wants to meet” and “we will arrange it”. “We have to end this war. It’s a bloody mess,” he said at a press briefing at his Florida headquarters.
This statement, recorded during one of Trump’s public appearances, points to his efforts to present himself as a peacemaker. While his rhetoric may sound appealing, experts warn of the risks associated with hasty decisions and unclear plans. In this regard, Alexander Duleba, an expert on foreign policy, warns against the oversimplification of Trump’s proposals. According to him, the peace negotiations cannot be limited to stopping the fighting without solving basic issues such as borders or security guarantees for Ukraine.
The international press is no less intensively speculating about the content of the expected negotiations. Above all, Russian analysts agree that the discussion will not only concern a ceasefire on the front line, de facto recognition of Russian control over the occupied territories, and a commitment that Ukraine will not join the North Atlantic Alliance, reports .
“A significant part of the problem is that Russia has been saying for many years – even before the Putin era – that Ukraine must never be a member of NATO. Now they repeated it again. It is an insurmountable limit for them,” .
Ukraine’s leadership fears that a quick cease-fire or peace deal, which Trump and his associates have repeatedly talked about, could come at a high price. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has so far refused any quick return to the negotiating table, he writes.
A quick solution or a dangerous compromise?
Trump’s proposals to freeze the conflict and deploy peacekeepers have raised concerns. According to Duleb, Trump’s vision ignores key issues such as borders and security guarantees for Ukraine. “Trump will try to fulfill his campaign promise, as he claimed to end the war within 24 hours. However, he gradually realizes that it will not be so easy,” said Duleba. So far, it is publicly known, “Trump’s team has proposed only a rough concept of a solution, which includes a freeze on the frontline conflict, the deployment of peacekeeping troops from Europe and US security guarantees for Ukraine”.
However, according to him, this proposal contains serious flaws: “It is not clear what will happen to the occupied territories. No one in Europe will recognize the “new” borders of Ukraine, and therefore some equivalent of the Minsk agreements would have to be created. It is also not precisely defined whether the security guarantees from the US will be bilateral or broader.” Trump’s representative was originally supposed to visit Kyiv in early January, but his trip was postponed until after the inauguration.
Retired General Keith Kellogg, whom Trump selected as his special envoy for peace talks on Ukraine, praised Trump’s willingness to negotiate with the Russian president and criticized Joe Biden for refusing such talks, reports .
In this context, however, there are growing concerns about Moscow’s demands, which could significantly weaken Ukraine’s position. “Putin has indicated that he will not accept any diplomatic end to the war unless Ukraine agrees to hand over large swaths of its territory to Moscow. He also demands guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO,” he states.
What role will the EU play?
With the new US administration under the leadership of Donald Trump, there are questions about how the US will approach the solution to the war in Ukraine and what role the European Union will play in this process. One of the main concerns of EU diplomats is the possibility that Trump will prefer bilateral negotiations with Putin without the direct participation of Ukraine or European countries.
“In the case of Trump, such a scenario cannot be ruled out. But I think it is unlikely, as we see that his team first started communicating with European allies and Ukraine,” said Duleba.
According to him, today it is increasingly clear that the solution to the conflict in Ukraine will have to include coordination between the USA, Europe and Ukraine. Any efforts for bilateral agreements between the US and Russia would likely meet with stiff resistance from European countries.
In December, representatives of the Trump team met with the foreign ministers of major European countries, such as France, Germany, Italy and Poland. “It was an important meeting at which the question of what the US and Europe’s joint approach will be to the war in Ukraine began to be resolved. The Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs even declared that if the US withdraws its support to Ukraine, Europe will take over the burden of this aid,” added Duleba.
“So we see that Trump’s team has primarily focused on communicating with European allies and Ukraine, which suggests that coordination within the Western alliance is currently preferred,” Duleba added.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal also recently expressed his belief that it would be “almost impossible” for Trump to exclude Europe from decision-making on Ukraine.
Director of the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) Marie Dumoulin said in an interview: “The EU must be present as an institution in the future negotiations, because it is one of the important providers and coordinators of aid to Ukraine.”
“The United States must help change the nature of the situation and convince Russia to come to the negotiating table,” declared French President Emmanuel Macron last week at a meeting with French ambassadors at the Elysee Palace.
“Ukrainians must have realistic discussions on territorial issues, because only they can do it. However, Europeans must build security guarantees, which will be their main responsibility,” he added.
“The United States will look weak if the outcome is more favorable to Russia than to Ukraine and its Western allies,” Dumoulin said. She also added that the Europeans must clearly show that the interest of the US is to enter into negotiations with a united West, not with divided Europeans and Ukrainians.
However, she warned: “The question of whether other non-European actors should be present and whether it makes sense to participate more broadly in the process – for example China, India or Brazil – increases the likelihood of outcomes that could be less favorable to Ukraine.”
The key question remains what future negotiations might look like and when they might take place. According to EU diplomats, there are no concrete proposals or plans on paper yet.
However, some European diplomats indicate that the situation could begin to change after the first meeting of EU foreign ministers this year, which is scheduled for January 27, shortly after Trump’s inauguration, he writes.
Trump’s ambitions for ending the war
US Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Antony Blinken at a press conference that the new administration of Donald Trump has the prerequisites for reaching a “good deal” for Ukraine that would end the conflict and ensure long-term peace. “I believe the new administration is in a position to help if the Ukrainians decide to negotiate,” he declared.
He also recalled that Trump often talks about “good deals”, which, according to him, creates space to demonstrate this ability in practice. At the same time, however, he emphasized that any ceasefire must be permanent and must not allow Russia to gain time to reassess its strategy and resume aggression. According to him, any ceasefire must contain effective mechanisms to deter Putin from renewed attacks.
Blinken also said the U.S. has discussed various options with European partners and passed on its findings to the incoming Trump administration. “I expect that the new administration will be able to build on all the successes to date and ensure that Ukraine not only survives, but also prospers,” Blinken concluded.
What’s next?
EU diplomats expect that the situation could begin to change after Trump’s inauguration. The meeting of EU foreign ministers scheduled for January 27 could indicate the direction in which further steps will be taken.
Trump’s drive to end the war quickly is welcome, but it is a process that will require realistic expectations and patience. “Trump’s idea is still rather naive and incomplete. We will see how Putin and Zelensky react to it, but the key factor will be whether it will be possible to maintain a unified position of the West,” concludes Duleba.
