Rental prices for commercial real estate soared 7.88% in 2024, breaking a record with the highest annual growth since the beginning of the historical series measured by the index, in 2013. On the other hand, the commercial property sales price index registered a growth of just 0.40% in the year, reflecting a significant contrast between the two types of the real estate market.
The explanation for such a difference lies in the higher interest rate scenario that dominated last year, driving investors away from commercial properties and increasing demand for rent, according to Alison Oliveira, coordinator of the FipeZap index. “High interest rates have cooled the sales market, while rentals have already recovered all the losses caused by the pandemic and continue to grow”, he states.
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In comparison, reference indices for the Brazilian economy such as the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M), from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), considered the “rent index”, ended the year with accumulated increases of, respectively, 4.83% and 6.54%.
Each location had its own dynamic. Among the cities monitored by FipeZap with the highest value for rental properties are Niterói (+17.84%); Curitiba (+10,89%); Rio de Janeiro (+9.05%); Belo Horizonte (+8.47%); Brasília (+7.62%); São Paulo (+7.13%); Salvador (+6.23%); Campinas (+5.71%); Florianópolis (+5.11%), and Porto Alegre (+4.63%).
In the case of sales prices, the highlights are Curitiba (+7,16%) e Salvador (+5,50%), which led, followed by Niterói, with an increase of 2.40%; Florianópolis (1.80%); São Paulo (1.33%), and Campinas (1.02%). About that, Rio de Janeiro (-3.56%) e Belo Horizonte (-2.04%) had retractions.
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According to Oliveira, in each city the market pace is different. Thus, in Curitiba, growth is greater due to the more intense activity in the region. “In São Paulo, the country’s main commercial center, many companies are still in a hybrid working regime, which takes away the strength of the commercial real estate market”, he explains.
December 2024 Result
In the last month of 2024, rental prices increased by 0.23%, while sales prices increased by 0.16%. Both were below inflationary indices, such as the IPCA (+0.52%) and the IGP-M (+0.94%), demonstrating a more moderate performance in the period.
Among the cities analyzed, Curitiba (+1,02%) e Niterói (+4.29%) led the increases in sales and rental prices, respectively. Already locations like Brasilia (-0.66%) e Curitiba (-1,16%) recorded declines in their respective segments.
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In December, the average selling price was R$ 8.421/m²while the rental remained in R$ 45,53/m². São Paulo stood out with the highest values: R$ 10.142/m² (for sale) e R$ 54.40/m² (rental). Salvador, on the other hand, presented the lowest prices, with R$ 5.328/m² (for sale) e R$ 42.34/m² (rental).
The average rental return on commercial properties, the so-called rental yield, was 6.70% per year, higher than the 6.01% for the residential market, but below traditional financial investments in 2024. Salvador led with the highest annual profitability ( 9.52% pa), followed by Campinas (7.86% pa).
Considering the other locations where commercial property prices are monitored by the FipeZAP Index, the return rates for those who aim to obtain income from rent were as follows: São Paulo (6.73% pa); Porto Alegre (6.49% pa); Brasília (6.49% pa); Niterói (6.45% pa); Rio de Janeiro (6.33% pa); Florianópolis (6.25% pa); Belo Horizonte (6.24% pa); and Curitiba (5.77% pa).
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