“From this moment on, .” For me, this phrase encapsulates the feeling of the new government. A leader like Trump is a symptom of a; of a country that no longer has the global dominance it once had and that reacts to this by closing itself off and adopting a hostile stance towards the rest of the world. They are no longer the self-confident champions of the post-war world order they helped create; They are the first to want to dismantle it because it costs too much.
As usual, there was no mention of allied nations. The world is an immense everyone-for-himself. In business relationships, one side loses and the other wins. In command of the most powerful state in the world, he knows he can, sanctions or even military action, and there will be very little that any threatened country can do.
Even if he doesn’t get everything he initially asked for (remembering that demanding a lot is the first step to getting something), he comes away with victory: mineral exploration rights from ; zero tariff for American ships in ; some concession from . We don’t know exactly how or when, but, at some point, blackmail will arrive in Brazil.
Some of his promises are harmful to growth, such as tariffs on imports, which will make life more expensive for consumers, and a reduction in immigration, which will make labor more expensive. But they have the desired effect of relatively benefiting industrial workers and young people with little education. Let’s say it clearly: it is legitimate for a country to vote to put an end to illegal immigration and even to reduce legal immigration. But anyone who thinks that immigrants are an economic problem for the country is deluded.
At the same time, a set of internal measures can compensate for the economic closure: the deregulation of production —especially environmental— and tax cuts, which should continue at full steam.
I have no doubt whatsoever that the final result of this government will be economic growth, an improvement in the relative position of the industrial working class, more products being produced internally and numerous advantages gained in relations with other countries. In each case, Trump will emerge victorious.
Before putting on the little Maga doll, however, it is worth noting that all of this comes with a bill, which will be paid by that partner that we cannot see and, therefore, forget that it exists: the future.
The US will pollute like never before, accelerating extreme weather events for us all. With the tax cuts, a problem — which is real — of the American economy also worsens: public debt, which will continue to rise and accelerate. The more closed world with the USA as a playground bully who steals his colleagues’ lunch, in turn, will have gradually eroded cooperation between countries and the good faith of the entire democratic world towards the USA.
I don’t want anyone to accuse me of being a pessimist. Come on: if the billionaires who now surround the government invent a new low-cost technology that solves the climate issue, or if Doge finds trillion-dollar expenses that can be cut without being felt by the population, the USA will be saved. In the absence of such miracles, however, I do not believe that outbursts of national pride will prevent the decline.
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