North American currency ends another session below the level at the end of 2024; the result comes with Trump president and less than a week before Copom
The commercial dollar closed with a drop of 0.34% this Wednesday (23.Jan.2025), at R$5.93. It is the lowest price since November 27th (R$ 5.91).
The US exchange rate has been falling since Monday (Jan 20), that is, 4 days ago. It is influenced especially because of the reaction to Donald Trump’s (Republican Party) mandate as head of the United States.
The result also comes less than a week before the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, when the Central Bank is expected to raise the basic interest rate by another 1 percentage point – according to the signal given at the end of 2024.
TRUMP 2
Trump trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1st. He also promised to increase taxes on Chinese products, but there is an expectation from financial agents that there will be lower taxes than previously expected.
On Tuesday (January 21, 2025), the Republican told journalists that he is discussing a 10% charge. He stated, during the election campaign, that taxes could be 60% on Chinese products.
The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau (Liberal Party, center-left) that the country will adopt measures “equivalents” against the USA.
China talks about defending its “national interests” against taxation. “We believe that there are no winners in a trade or tariff war”, declared Mao Ning, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
For economists, Trump’s protectionist speech with the imposition of trade tariffs could affect global chains and commodities. By trying to impact China’s growth, the US must also harm Brazilian exports, as the Asian country is Brazil’s largest trading partner.
The tax reduction for US companies should have inflationary impacts, which would require more measured action from the Federal Reserve in monetary policy. The fall in interest rates in the country tends to be slower.
SCENARIO IN BRAZIL
On investors’ radar is also the possibility that the president (PT) will not run for re-election in 2026. Financial agents criticize the current management for increasing public spending, which makes the fiscal balance uncertain, in addition to .
The Secretary of the National Treasury, Rogério Ceron, this Wednesday (22 January) that the government will take new fiscal measures to control spending “if you have to do” to meet the goal of zeroing the primary deficit in 2025.
