The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics () recorded a 6.4% drop in the price of milk paid to producers in November 2024, with an average value of R$2.6374 per liter. The data was released on Wednesday (22 January 2025). In comparison with November 2023, the price accumulates an increase of 25.9%, already considering the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for the period.
Cepea states that the devaluation of raw milk results from the progression of the harvest and the seasonal increase in supply. The expectation is for a further 2% drop in milk prices collected in December.
In wholesale prices in São Paulo, dairy prices continue to fall. UHT milk recorded the biggest reduction in December: 3.16%, closing at R$4.24 per liter. Powdered milk (400g) fell 1.06%, to R$31.23, while mozzarella cheese fell 0.69%, to R$32.28 per kilo.
Dairy exports grew 15.55% in December compared to November, but registered a drop of 7.25% compared to December 2023. Imports decreased 4.34% compared to November and 11.39% compared to December of the previous year. The dairy trade balance deficit reduced by 4.8%, totaling US$80.2 million (equivalent to 194.8 million liters).
The Effective Operating Cost (COE) of dairy farming rose 0.21% in December, accumulating an increase of 2.88% in 2024. The increase was driven by animal nutrition costs, low pasture availability, unfavorable weather conditions and devaluation of the real , which made imported inputs more expensive.
The drop in prices follows a seasonal pattern in the dairy sector. Historical data from the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) indicate that the last quarter of the year traditionally sees an increase in production due to more favorable weather conditions in the country’s main dairy basins.
