The Lula (PT) government should have a sample of what to expect from Brazil’s actions at the beginning of March.
On the 10th of the month, the countries of the (Organization of American States) select a new secretary general for a five-year term. The winner will replace Luis Almagro, a Uruguayan whose management divided opinions in the entity due to an anti-Chavista stance that earned him praise from the right and alienated left-wing governments.
The Americans have always maintained a strong influence on the OAS —based in Washington— as they see the entity as a mechanism through which they can seek to legitimize their policies for the continent.
The chancellor of , Rubéns Ramírez, has been running for office since last year and hopes to receive the blessing of the new US administration. To this end, he courted Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November and counts on the access that his president, Santiago Peña, has to the new head of American diplomacy, Marco Rubio.
Ramírez faces his counterpart, Albert Ramdin, who has built solid support around him from Caricom (Caribbean Community) countries. With 14 members in the OAS out of a quorum of 34, a united Caribbean leaves Ramdin just a few votes away from victory.
There is also the possibility that new candidates will emerge before voting day.
From this scenario some questions arise: will Trump’s team embrace Ramírez’s candidacy and launch an offensive against small Caribbean nations to try to force them to abandon the name of Suriname? Or, more pragmatically, will it avoid a direct clash with the Caribbeans and opt to negotiate with Ramdin, given its apparent advantage?
Whatever the answer, Washington’s moves will be carefully analyzed. The level of aggressiveness that the US puts into the election is seen by Lula’s aides as a thermometer of what to expect in the two years in which the PT member will have to deal with the disruptive Donald Trump in the White House.
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