Trump’s return to power has inevitably copied. Conflicts that cause immense human suffering. But it was enough to take a walk through the promenade (main walk) of the Alpina Switzerland to perceive the immense relevance of the development of artificial intelligence (AI) in the contemporary world. It was very remarkable the presence of companies related to the sector in the properties that tilted the central street. The career for the domain of artificial intelligence is a crucial indicator of the future of the world economy – and of the balances of power among the most advanced actors: USA, China and Europe.
This techno-economic battle with geopolitical derivatives runs on different planes. Uljan Sharka, CEO of Igenius, an Italian company in the sector, believes that a fundamental element is the computational power. “If we analyze the fundamental enabling elements, data, talents and computational power are usually highlighted. The former are more or less open to all, in the second there are very good universities not only in the US but also in Europe and in China. The computational power is actually the only element that differentiates an ecosystem from another, ”he says, during a conversation held in the Davos forum.
Sharka underlines two fundamental elements in that aspect of the race. On the one hand, the restrictions promoted by the administration of Biden to the export to China of the key microchips in the advanced technological developments. These are very complicated the advance of the Asian giant, and constitute a formidable weapon in the competition between them. On the other, an investment culture, in his opinion, wrong in Europe. “In Europe we have no restrictions, but we live a paradox. When, a long time ago, it was clear that you had to invest in softwarein Europe there was still a predilection for investment in manufacturing. Now, there is intangible, when we would really have to invest in material computing capacities. ”
The observation touches a nerve that has repeatedly emerged during the Davos Conference: the fragmentation and inefficiency of the European capital market, one that treasures higher household savings in quantity than the American, and that, however, suffers dysfunctions for which the assets end up going to the US in large quantities. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stressed this Friday in Davos the need to advance in the authentic formation of a unique capital market. “We need a bank union, a union of capital markets, retain talent and home savings. And it is also time to import some talents that may feel disenchanted for one reason or another on the other side of the Atlantic. ”
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen ,. There seems to be a broad consensus on the need, exposed in it, but it does not seem that they are on the horizon quick solutions. Meanwhile, the vigorous American capital market abundantly watches the development of the sector in its country.
“The foundations of the US force reside in its capital market,” said Larry Fink, president of Blackrock. “Every entrepreneur, any small or large company finds capital. That allows much more creativity. The capital market allows to rebuild, change direction, modify more speed than any economy in the world, ”he added.
Another relevant aspect to define the AI career is access to energy. Forecasts about the huge amounts of energy that will be necessary to feed the models abound. And experts who have noticed that the highest level of energy prices represent a strong disadvantage for European competitiveness -in the AI sector, and in general.
Sharka points out, however, a development that can give certain hope to Europe not to suffer a decisive deficit for its greatest energy costs. “The new Nvidia chips substantially produce 30 times more calculation capacity, consuming 25 times less energy. If this development curve continues, the energy factor may not be such a relevant differential. ”
Precisely the amazing advance in the stock market capitalization of Nvidia – now at a value close to 3.5 billion dollars, greater than the GDP of France -, the technological leadership of companies such as OpenAI, the reorientation of technological giants that have huge levers Undoubtedly indicate the advanced position of the United States in the great race. Europe has promising companies such as Mistral, but any objective analysis detects an abysmal distance. Time will say if it is an irreversible advantage.
Another important aspect in the race is of course regulation. In this we attend emblematic divergence of our time. Trump promised before the Davos forum “an unprecedented deregulation campaign in history.” The EU has been a pioneer in terms of AI regulation, faithful to its protective instinct against the risks of abuse. China advances on a path of growing state intervention in the economy, promoted by security and geopolitical reasons, which is disturbing investors.
These attitudes somehow reflect the soul of the three great powers, and are one of the factors that influence the race, which perhaps represents the main defining element of the economic future of the world – and one of the main ones of its geopolitical becoming— . A career full of promises, and risk. Unfortunately, the sector is no exception, and there is no expectation of cooperation for global governance that would be crucial. Here, also, the world runs to the edge of the precipice.
