Taxpayers have good expectations regarding the taxpayers’ gains in court judgments, which will lead to union losses
Judgment on tax issues that are being processed in the Supreme Court (STF) in 2025 have the potential to cause billionaire losses to the Union. R $ 660.1 billion in the main guidelinesaccording to LDO (Budgetary Guidelines Law) for 2025.
With the return of the Court’s regular activities on Monday (3.FEV.2025), taxpayers create expectations for certain trials that may favor tax payers, to the detriment of the Federal Government.
See the main topics that can affect the Union Budget:
Although the STF collects favorable decisions to the union in the tax scope, the projection of a positive scenario by the experts is based on a previous decision of the Court that rescued the “optimism” from the sector for the analysis of the themes.
After the Supreme Court understood by the exclusion of ICMS (Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services) from the PIS/COFINS Calculation Base in the call “Thesis of the century”, For the benefit of companies, the largest waiting now deals with “Puppies Theses” of the court decision.
Two “Puppies Theses” can result in new losses of R $ 101.1 would to the government. The lawsuits in the court awaiting analysis calls for the exclusion of PIS/COFINS from their own calculation base and ISS (Tax on Services of Any Nature) from the PIS/COFINS calculation basis. They use the foundations of the STF’s decision in the “century thesis” on their subjects.
According to tax lawyer Carlos Gouveia, there “optimism” of tax payers waiting for trials, especially in the matter of excluding ISS on PIS/COFINS.
For tax lawyer Thaís Noveletto, both puppies have good legal grounds. In addition, ISS analysis of PIS/COFINS in 2024 grew the “Optimistic look” For a favorable STF position to the paying sector, especially after the majority formed by the ministers. The score is 4 to 2 for the exclusion of the tax.
Second novel, “These are theses that have long been awaiting pacification by the judiciary, which represents risks to both sides interested in the trial.”
Unfavorable tide in the STF
Carlos believes there is a “Favorable tide” the Union in trials dealing with high value costs for public coffers. According to him, since the judgment of the “thesis of the century” in 2017, which severely impacted the public coffers, the STF acted with more “fear”there has been no great achievements of the population ever since.
“It is a judgment that we keep some expectation. Despite having this unfavorable tide [a quem paga imposto] In the trials of tax theses, this is a thesis that we bet that will be tried in 2025, because, in a way, the matter is already mature and possibly has a favorable outcome to taxpayers ”he said.
For this reason, he said that a decision favorable to the sector may also not represent a “Great gain” Tax payers, depending on the modulation made by the Court in determining who will benefit from the decision. The “thesis of the century” itself, for example, suffered in court in 2021 to minimize its financial impact on public coffers.
Impacts of decisions
Considering the Union scenario, lawyer Noveletto says that the loss can significantly impact the collection, especially with the government presenting a discourse on balancing tax accounts and recovery of resource injection.
Carlos explains, however, that an impact will not be felt until the res judicata of STF decisions, which “possibly” It will not occur in 2025. The res judicata is the exhaustion of appeals in the process.
Also in the case of the sector gain in the processes in question, Gouveia argues that a great loss of government should not drastically affect the federal budget, since the losses are calculated within the budget piece and the values mapped for PGFN contingency ( Attorney General of the National Treasury).
“The government is expected to have a safeguard and a budget organization to bear a possible defeat. In addition, even though the trial takes place this year, most of the time, there is still a modulation. So, the STF ends up making a cut to know who the taxpayers are benefiting and who will not benefit. With this, it brings a possible decrease in the impact of victory ”these.
Main judgments
On other judgments, such as the most impact on the Union dealing with the incidence of PIS/Cofins on imports, Carlos says it is early to estimate an expectation, because they are themes that have been in the Supreme Court for some time and have no prospect of Deadline for analysis.
The case in question discusses the need for complementary law for the collection of PIS and Cofins on imports (theme 79), which is currently regulated by Ordinary Law 10.865/04. The estimated impact is R $ 325 billion.
The expectation regarding other judgments should arise in the taxpayers with the return of STF activities. The court has already guided for analysis 3 tax themes to be evaluated in the first month of the judicial year.
They are:
- IRPJ and CSLL on controlling profits abroad – 7 to 14.FEV (Virtual Plenary);
- Double taxation (voucher and controlled abroad) – 7 to 14.FEV (Virtual Plenary); and
- FUNRURAL – from 14 to 21.FEV (Virtual Plenary).
The first theme was marked in 2024. He discusses the possibility of collection of the IRPJ (Legal Entities Income Tax) and CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Income) about national companies from the profits earned by controllers abroad.
The analysis of the Supreme Court will take place in the same period when the ministers will analyze the incidence of taxation on controlled abroad. On Friday (14.FEV), the analysis will be to endorse the decision of Minister Gilmar Mendes to suspend all processes related to the collection of social contribution of rural employer.
“I think that now, with the return of judiciary activities in February, we will already have a panoramic scenario, because it already, at least, discloses an intimated agenda for the 1st semester. So, we will already be able to dose ”he said.
Tax reform
Most of the discussions that are being processed in the STF deals with the PIS and COFINS rates, which will be extinguished after the entry into force of the which establishes the unification of taxes.
According to Noveletto, the reform can lead to limitations to the use of credits by those who pay tax, in case of favorable decisions in the trials, considering the current scenario and the transitional period. States that the wait “It’s a race against taxpayers”.
“In the current scenario, most taxpayers use the effects of a favorable thesis as a way to compensate for the tax currently due to the improperly collected tax, which we call ‘tax compensation’. So considering that PIS/COFINS, ISS and ICMS will be extinguished, the new percentages of the taxes in question may not correspond to the same calculation currently applied ”he explained.
Lawyer Carlos Gouveia argues that, as much as the reform comes with the positive purpose of tax payers, it is possible that a reverse economic effect on taxpayers in the early years in force.
For him, the possibility of “Nubula effect” With increasing tax burden on the early stages of the reform, however, it can influence court decisions to be more favorable to taxpayers.
“Companies will have to adapt to this reform. This will generate a very large cost to taxpayers. Let’s have to live with 2 systems. An old system, which is gradually replaced by a new system. So the expectation at first is that the tax burden increases. Then it is expected to have a reduction and an equalization. By thinking in this way, the judiciary can feel more tempted to benefit the taxpayer ”these.
