The main opposition leaders are in exile in Western countries, the four candidates allowed to compete are allies or supporters of the president Alexander Lukashenkocriticism on social media is under a censorship “blackout”, and security forces are on standby for any protest. This is the photograph of the election in Belarus scheduled for this Sunday (26), which should only confirm the victory of the nationalist leader, in power since 1994.
Also read:
Lukashenko, an unconditional ally of Vladimir Putin, took several measures to secure his seventh presidential term. The electoral law has been deliberately tightened: candidates now need to have resided in Belarus for 20 years and not have residence status in any other country. Logically, this excluded politicians in asylum in other countries.
There will be no impartial observers and no voting abroad, to avoid the participation of critics of the regime.
Three of the “opposition” candidates are party leaders from the pro-Lukashenko bloc. Sergei Syrankov, for example, the first secretary of the Communist Party, avowedly Stalinist, has already said that he would not run against, but “alongside” Lukashenko.
The head of the Liberal Democratic Party, Oleg Gaidukevich, a staunch anti-European, declared that he would be happy to congratulate Lukashenko on election day. And Republican Party for Labor and Justice leader Alexander Khizhnyak described his opponent Lukashenko as “the right choice.”
Continues after advertising
Experts say that even the formally independent Hanna Kanapackaya, who was “nominated” to serve as an opposition deputy from 2016 to 2019, does not change the overall picture.
“Threats” from the West
According to an analysis by ZOiS, a political studies center in Eastern Europe, the pro-government narratives that circulated in the period leading up to the elections repeated the same theses as in recent years, such as “The West is threatening Belarus”; ‘The opposition sold out to the West’; or “Lukashenko is the guarantor of stability”.
Also read:
Continues after advertising
Even with more than 1,200 political prisoners, an opposition forced into exile and the closure of independent media and more than 1,800 NGOs and political parties in recent years, the government’s repression in the period leading up to the elections has not given any respite.
“There are signs that the state is moving from autocracy to totalitarianism as it strives to control all of society, including the private sphere,” says the think tank.
Human rights organizations have reported an increase in security force activity since the start of the election campaign, including intimidation and blackmail of potential activists at work, or dismissals due to alleged anti-regime activities in 2020.
Continues after advertising
The idea of using the military to protect polling stations has been openly discussed.
Opening, protests and repression
Interestingly, the greatest repression is now directly linked to the effects of a political opening since 2015, when there was a certain liberalization of the regime and the normalization of relations between Belarus and the European Union.
After Belarus adopted a neutral stance toward Ukraine in 2014 and after holding relatively peaceful, though not free, elections in 2015 and 2016, the EU lifted most of its sanctions against Belarus, notably after the government released political prisoners.
Continues after advertising
But these political and social changes contributed to a broad anti-Lukashenko mass mobilization in 2020 that caught Belarusian authorities off guard.
This led to a change in the socio-political model of Belarus. There was reinforcement in the security service apparatus (“Siloviki”), — an increasing number of civilian leadership positions in government and local authorities have been given to members of this staff.
And large-scale repression began to be carried out against all forms of public dissent. And Belarus left the position of neutrality and provided its territory, airspace and military infrastructure for Russian troops to invade Ukraine.
