The first half of ()’s third term was marked by a poor performance in , a reflection of a political phenomenon observed around ten years ago and which projects more difficulties for the final stretch of the administration.
The performance of provisional measures in 2023 and 2024 — the Executive’s main legislative tool — was the worst in history. Presidential vetoes, another major government instrument in the area, also had a negative historical mark.
A total of 32 vetoes made by Lula to projects approved by the Legislature were totally or partially overturned by deputies and senators, who have the final say (the president has the power to veto projects from Congress, which by majority can overturn these vetoes). The number is similar to that of the same period of management of , of (31).
Of the 133 provisional measures that Lula issued in 2023 and 2024, only 20 were approved, with modifications, around a third of what was observed in the same period under Bolsonaro, who until then had the worst performance — 58 MPs approved out of a total of 156.
The majority, 76, expired without being voted on.
The MPs are effective as laws from the moment they are issued, but they must be corroborated by Congress within a period of up to 120 days, otherwise they will no longer be valid (before September 2001 they could be reissued indefinitely, without the need for analysis by Congress).
The relative small presence of the left in Congress contributed to this result, which stopped many of them, with control of only around a quarter of the 594 seats.
But these two factors are not the only ones.
Dilma Rousseff 2 (2015-2016), Michel Temer (2016-2018), Bolsonaro (2019-2022) and Lula 3 (2023 onwards) led governments that had, for most of the time, a difficult relationship with Congress.
The scenario differed from most previous governments, which also faced moments of turbulence with Congress, but on average managed to maintain a hegemonic relationship.
The times of the usual “government dealings” in Congress began to collapse in 2015, a period that hosted two major events that would change the course of recent history — the beginning of the escalation in values and the imposition of parliamentary amendments and the election for the presidency of the Chamber .
Amendments are today the main political instrument of congressmen, who spend a large part of their daily lives and mandate managing funds for works and investments in their electoral strongholds and forming local political blocs with governors, state deputies, mayors and councilors.
In 2024 alone, for example, each senator, at least R$70 million. Leaders of the most influential benches and parliamentarians direct much more than that.
From 2015 to now, the amendments took an upward direction that led them to exceed R$50 billion. In addition to the increase in volume, Congress approved mandatory execution for most of the jackpot.
This took away from governments the main instrument that was historically used to form majorities and demand loyalty in Congress, the well-known “take it, give it here”: the government only released amendments from allied and faithful parliamentarians, and parliamentarians conditioned support and I vote for this release.
The empowerment of Congress also coincided with the left’s lack of momentum at the polls and, consequently, the majority presence of the center-right and right in the Chamber and .
Lula narrowly beat Bolsonaro in 2022, but center-right and right-wing parties won most of the seats in Congress.
Because of this, Lula distributed nine ministries to União Brasil, PSD and MDB at the beginning of the government, later expanding the range to PP and Republicans, with one portfolio each.
Although on paper these parties have a large majority of deputies and senators, in practice there are many oppositionists in these parties and also unstable government supporters, sometimes supporting Planalto Palace projects, sometimes opposing them.
The fact that the PT formally commands political articulation, but with a minister, Alexandre Padilha, who does not find support among the main leaders of the center, also weighed against Lula.
In December 2023, for example, Congress totally or partially overturned, in one fell swoop, 13 vetoes made by Lula.
In May 2024, in votes that saw widespread dissent among allied parties.
At the most striking point, the parliamentarians, with the support of 314 federal deputies and 52 senators.
Paulo Niccoli Ramirez, political scientist at FESPSP (Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo) and ESPM (Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing), cites the growth of anti-PTism in Congress and says that the proximity of the elections should make the parties more aligned with Bolsonaro to intensify opposition, increasing dependence on the center.
“This ends up distorting the profile of the Lula government, which in its first two terms delivered social programs with great impact. Before there were strong initiatives, such as those focused on housing, which are not being repeated now.”
Felippe Angeli, advocacy coordinator at Justa (research center on Justice, Legislative and Executive), highlights that, in many cases, the budget allocated to mandatory amendments exceeds that of certain ministerial portfolios, which further strengthens the influence of parliamentarians.
“In the past, the government’s political coordination was based on the occupation of ministries and on amendments distributed by the government after important votes. These two elements guarantee the Executive a certain negotiating power. Today, with the mandatory amendments, this balance has changed, and the power it became more concentrated in Congress.”
The numerical analysis of votes on provisional measures and vetoes is an important indicator of a government’s performance in Congress, but there are other less objective factors to be taken into account. Among them, the degree of changes that occurred in the measures proposed by the government, possible agreements and changes in the political scenario and the inclusion of themes of interest to the Planalto in other proposals.
The Lula government, for example, has celebrated, although the coordination for this involved a series of politicians from the Executive, Legislative and states.
