The Portuguese economy can be, after all, less vulnerable than we think to the “Trump effect”. Unlike northern Europe, Portugal has a sleeve asset to combat US protectionist tariffs.
Germany presented, for the second year in a row, a growth rate with negative values and 2024.
“During the euro crisis 10 years ago, we had all the moral attitudes of my German fellow citizens – about how the Greeks should become more German. Now it is a blessing not to be German, At least with regard to the structure of your economy, ”said the world director of Macroeconomic Studies at Dutch Bank Ing, Carsten Brzeski, in December last year.
In the Netherlands and France, economic growth is also decreasing.
Explains that the European Central Bank reduced loan costs by 2024 to 3%in the midst of increasing pressure to give more support for economies in difficulties in northern Europe.
In the midst of this scenario, Portugal is one of the best performance countries, along with Spain (one of the largest economies in the European Union, was the fastest growing – 4%, compared to 0.8% of the European average) and Greece.
Portugal also remained well above the average of Europe, having grown approximately 1.7%. This year, it is expected to reach 2% (more than double expectations for France and Germany).
Justifies this good provision with the effort to recover the 2008 crisis, as well as the fact that it is in southern Europe, in general, where the most funds are channeled from the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR).
Portugal has an asset against Trump rates
The European Union is now awaiting the promised customs rates on the European merchandise promised by Trump. The countries that most export to the US will therefore be the most directly affected. They are Ireland, Cyprus and Luxembourg.
Already Portugal, is below the average exports of the EU for the American countryalthough this market means 3.8% of GDP. Greece and Spain also have a more residual market in the US, with 2.4% and 2.2% of GDP a due to this trade, respectively.
In fact, southern European countries should be the least affected by tariffs. In addition, as Donald Trump has announced a 10% rate for the importation of Chinese products, this can guarantee, a greater presence of Chinese products in Europe, at smaller prices, which can help our market.
But the true Portuguese asset is something in which Donald Trump can interfere little: the turismo.
It estimated that, in November 2024 alone, the tourism sector added 2.2 million guests, 5 million overnights and 386 million euros of total profits. This is an increase of 16.7% compared to the previous year.
In addition to this sector, which cannot suffer customs export rates to the US, with little weight to Portugal, we can also benefit, unlike the Nordic dollar strengthening Expected for this Trump mandate.
As it advances, the increase in the dollar against the euro has already been felt this week. The index that measures the strength of the US currency rose almost 4% since the US elections in early November.
For the Nordic countries, the increase in the value of the dollar “makes imports more complicated,” explains the investigator António Alvarenga.
But in the Portuguese case, the appreciation of the dollar facilitates or can boost even more sectors such as tourism And it can also allow it to easily facilitate the foreign direct investment, which is already very substantial in our economy, ”explains the professor.
To the public, the economist David Martínez Turégano confirms: “The various metrics used in the articles effectively show that Spain and Portugal are among the economies with the lowest level of exposure to a potential universal customs imposed by the US, classifying below most economies in central Europe. ”
But there are, of course, more negative scenarios. “It is uncertain how the European Union would respond to a universal tariff and, therefore, the extension of a potential global protectionist climbingwhich could have more severe macroeconomic effects in all EU countries, ”says the economist.
