Christoph Soeder / EPA
Olaf Scholz
The demographic groups of German voters of Turkish and Soviet origin promise to be decisive for the elections scheduled for February 23.
In Germany, political parties have less than a month to convince voters to support their platform in the February federal elections. There is an electoral group in particular that can offer the most late parties an opportunity to recover the lost ground: people with immigration background.
I estimate that 7.1 million votersthat is, one in eight German voters, have an antecedents of immigration – which means that they, or at least one of their parents, have emigrated to Germany.
This demographic group tends to vote less often than people who have no antecedents of immigration. And sociologist Friederike Römer says they are also less committed to voting for a particular party than they used to be.
Römer is a specialist at the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (Dezim) and co -author of a study that investigates daily concerns and party preferences for citizens with a migration history.
“Among all the groups analyzed, the party with the highest potential is the [Partido Social-Democrata de centro-esquerda]”, He says. “Nearly 20% of voters who have migratory history could be voted to vote in the [partido de extrema-direita Alternativa para a Alemanha]. But when we ask immigrant voters which party they consider to have the necessary knowledge to solve current problems, they answer ‘no’ more often than people without antecedents of immigration. ”
Another trend it has found is that the newly formed populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the leftist party usually have higher approval rates between this demographic group, while the green party does not do so well.
What themes appealed to immigrant voters?
For voters with an immigration history, inflation and the economy are at the top of their list of concerns.
“When it comes to material concerns, problems with their renovation plans or their life situation, people from immigration often refer to that They are more concerned than people without migratory background, ”said Römer.
“We also find that people without migratory background are often more concerned with the possibility of being victims of crime.”
Concerns like these have fueled the far-right alternative party for Germany (AFD), which has been campaigning with a xenophobic platform and against migrants, but also trying to reach new voters visibly. Römer noted that this strategy can be quite successful with immigrant voters.
“AFD is very good to address certain subpopulations with immigrant roots and to convince them of their policy. Immigrants who have lived in Germany for a long time, especially those in the region [Médio Oriente e Norte de África] or from Türkiye, they offer: ‘The problem is not you. The problem is the new ones. This has been very captivating, especially on social networks. ”
Why is the German-Turkish voters tend not to vote
Yunus Ulusoy, a researcher at the Turkey Study Center and Integration Research (ZFTI) at the University of Duisburg Essen, lists the following groups that AFD strategy may attract: Turkish peoplecritics of Islam, immigrants with a reasonably high assimilation rate and an immigration story that dates back to decades or those who see newcomers as a competition.
More, second Ulusoy, these groups “They are quite marginal. When I hear what AFD says about migration and Islam, I can’t imagine that the party is particularly well received in the community of Turkish roots at this time. ”
In the past, naturalized citizens with Turkish roots often supported social democrats. Although the SPD remains popular Among this demographic group, its attraction has become weaker in recent times.
Instead, more and more Turkish-German voters tend not to vote. Compared to other groups with an immigration history, this subgroup has a low electoral participation.
“There is a large group of young people who were victims of discrimination and ostracismwhich gave them the impression of not truly belonging to the group, ”says Ulusoy.
“This feeling is painful and can make young people completely move away from politics and do not even take the job of voting.”
Ulusoy also criticized politicians who were too concerned with pointing out the alleged deficits and problems of the Turkish community, rather than enhancing positive developments and conveying a sense of acceptance.
The “late repatriades” have great affinity with AFD
Another large subgroup of people with migratory background is the reinslated of German ethnicity from the former Soviet union, usually called “late repatriad”.
They also share the feeling of not belonging. When Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, German-Russian citizens felt particularly as outsiders, explained historian Jannis Panagiotidis of the University of Vienna’s Investigation Center for the History of Transformations (Reet) .
AFD took advantage of this feeling and was eager to capture this demographic group from the beginning, told DW. “AFD is the most open in an attempt to present itself as the Russian German Party“, These.
Panagiotidis explained that the party did it mainly with authoritarian promises, committing itself to Law and Order and adopting a critical position on migration. This, according to him, was very important for a part of this electorate and especially for those who felt insecure and, therefore, opposed the immigration of others, namely Muslim countries.
According to studies, immigrants from the former Soviet Union consider the theme of particularly important immigration. With the increase of skepticism in relation to the immigration policy of former German chancellor Angela Merkelsupport for its center-right Democratic Union (CDU) began to fade.
Traditionally, this demographic group had been a great supporter of the CDU.
While the CDU and its Bavarian brother party, the social union (CSU), began to court these voters with pension policies – Lighting for the aged demographics of late repatriaries – Panagiotidis believes AFD and, in particular, BSW will benefit from recent political developments.
“Many of the post-soviet community used to vote for the left party,” he says. “Many of these voters have now turned to the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance. If this party continues to exist, he adds, BSW has the potential to succeed not only with post-Soviet immigrant voters.
“The party is not positioned as far right, which could scare immigrant voters,” Panagiotidis said.
