put its plan mass deportation Since assuming the presidency of the United States on January 20. But if he can even fulfill his promise to send away up to 11 million illegal immigrantswhat can happen in the largest economy on the planet?
The impact would be so brutal that Bloomberg Economics It evaluates that the deportation of all undocumented immigrants would reduce the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by up to 8%, valued at US $ 27.3 trillion.
And the billionaire losses don’t stop there. According to the American Immigration Council (AIC), immigrant families contributed almost a sixth of all dollars in taxes in the country, about $ 580 billion in 2022.
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In total, illegal represent about 23%of the immigrant population, and about 4 million (23%of the total) are from Mexico, followed by India (6%), China (5%), Philippines (4%) and El Salvador (3%), according to data from the Pew Research Center.
The magnitude of these numbers already worries, even, Wall Streetwhich does the math of what it could cause to an entire economy, which depends a lot on these workers. This is because 13.6% of the American population is currently composed of immigrants. In addition, about 18.4% of the workforce comes from this huge mass and 25% of companies are made up of immigrants, according to data from the Labor Department.
“The country was built by immigrants. What has happened is that in recent years there has been a very large increase in cases of illegal immigration and that were not well managed by the previous management, which even led to the failure of Kamala Harris in the elections, as she was responsible for immigration ” , explains Vinicius Bicalho, a licensed immigration lawyer in the United States.
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According to him, a Gallup survey showed that only 25% of Americans are contrary to immigration, but 87% are favorable to the deportations of immigrants with crimes. “There is no feeling that immigrants are not important, but what is expected is that everything will be done within the law,” he adds.
Even with news about the latest deportations, Bicalho believes Donald Trump’s lines serve more to draw attention. “He uses words, threatens and I even think he should reduce the number of people who arrive at illegally borders. But I do not believe that he can move so much, because the institutions here are very solid and have already shit, for example, the norm he wanted to impose on the descendants of immigrants born in the country, ”he says.
Licensed by American Immigration Lawyer Associated (Aila) of the United States, immigrant from Minas Gerais already with American citizenship, Bicalho believes that actions are all directed to illegal immigration and that the country will continue to receive requests for visas, especially work for sectors that traditionally need foreign labor such as technology, health and engineering.
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He also cites those visas for investors, for those who want to start new business or request visas based on professional career.
“The country will continue to receive the requests. The point is that there will be greater control at the borders, where the volume of people has increased after the crisis of countries such as Venezuela, Haiti, Guatemala etc. ”
Brazilians in the USA
According to Bicalho, the last number released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicates that there are almost 2 million Brazilians in the United States, with 230,000 being indocmented. Among those who do not have documents are those who came by borders, illegally entering, who will hardly be able to regulate, and the non -status, which came with visas, but stayed for a longer time than allowed.
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There are also those who have asking for forgiveness to the US government or who asked asylum, as well as those who have been victims of human trafficking. “The immigration menu is extensive and there are over 180 types of visas.”
Most affected sectors
Among the US sectors that will most feel the impact of mass deportation are hotel, food and construction, according to data from the Jefferies Investment Bank. They are all intensive in labor and should feel the pressure on their costs. Fast food restaurants, for example, already face problems with the job market and food costs, which should increase.
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In construction, the problems range from building materials retailers to workers in the works themselves, since in states such as Texas, California and Florida more than 45% of construction workers are immigrants, according to Jefferies data.
In agriculture, it is estimated that throughout the United States about 70% of agricultural workers are immigrants, many of them undocumented, according to the National Agricultural Workers Survey of the US Department of Labor.
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Entrepreneurs
Not to mention the great proportion of immigrants, or their children, who have become important entrepreneurs in the country. It is estimated that 45% of companies on Fortune 500, annual ranking of the 500 largest US companies by revenue, were founded by immigrants or their children.
In addition, immigrants founded more than half (55%) of the US startups, valued over $ 1 billion.
In the technology sector, immigrants also played a key role in advances, with many of them coming to the country, initially as international students.
In the academic year of 2022-2023, more than one million international students contributed $ 40 billion to the US economy and supported more than 368,000 jobs through monthly fees and life expenses, according to the International Educators Association.
