The heat will kill more – especially in Spain and Italy

An increase in global average temperature between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century will lead to death of 2.3 million people in Europe due to heat.

A study published this Monday in Nature Medicinewhich modeled the impact of increasing the average global temperature in 854 urban zones from 30 European countries, revealed that More than 2.3 million people will be able to die in Europe due to the heat by the end of the century.

Some of the most affected cities would be Spanish as Barcelona, ​​Madrid and Valencia.

Investigators took into account three temperature scenarios: one in which the Paris agreement to combat climate change is fulfilled and the global temperature no more than 2 degrees until the end of the century; another in which it rises between 2 and 3 degrees; and a third, between 3 and 4 degrees of increase until the end of the century, which is where we drive according to the current trajectory of emissions.

“We took into account the variables that relate temperature and mortality in the last 20 years and analyze them with 19 climatic models in the three temperature scenarios mentioned,” he told Efe, Efe, Veronika Huberone of the authors and biologist and specialist in Environmental Epidemiology of the Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC).

In the worst scenario, with an increase in the average global temperature of about 4 degrees until the end of the century, Barcelona (Northeast of Spain) would be the European city with more deaths Excessive associated with high temperatures until the end of the century: 246,082, calculate the investigators.

After Rome and Naples. Madrid It occupies the fourth place among the most affected cities, with 129,716 additional deaths related to heat until the end of the century, and Valencia the seventh, with 67,519.

In fifth and sixth place are Milan and Athensrespectively.

You still die more cold, “but”…

According to previous studies, Europe has 10 cold -related deaths for every 1 heat -related death.

However, Climate change are disturbing this balancecausing heat -related mortality to increase, despite a possible decline in cold -related deaths.

“Even though cold deaths decrease if global temperatures rise, the balance would still be very negative, because heat -related additional deaths would dramatically increase and exceed two million,” Huber adds.

Outside the Mediterranean region, impacts are expected to be less serious. In cities like Paris, 13,515 additional deaths are foreseen by the end of the century, due to a combination of excessive cold or heat.

Most cities of the British islands and Scandinavian countries may record a net decrease in deaths, one of them London (less 27,455 deaths). This decline is offset by increases in the rest of Europeresulting in an increase of 2.3 million deaths in the worst heating scenario.

Reducing emissions is urgent

Researchers also found that in the most optimistic scenario, where emissions are reduced and Paris’s agreement is implemented, limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 degrees by the end of the century, 70% of the deaths from high temperatures could be avoided.

The key is to dramatically reduce emissionsunderlines the researcher, because although it is “essential” to adapt cities to the increase in global temperature, adaptation measures, by themselves, would not be enough to avoid increasing heat -related deaths in the Mediterranean region, in central Europe and in the Balkans.

“Climate change negotiations often state that a warmer climate can be beneficial. Our study shows that their arguments make no sense – even if cold -related mortality decreases, heat -related additional deaths would increase so much that there would be no compensation, ”concludes Huber.