There is a “very serious threat” and Portugal is the “rear” in a conflict with Russia. So the NATO came to Lisbon to make pressure

Luís Montenegro promised to reach 2% until … 2029. Some say “it won’t be enough”. Is that the Russian threat “may seem long,” but “is not”

1.55% of GDP: This is what spends Portugal in defense. 3%: This is what the NATO Secretary-General wants the country to spend. 5%: It was the number that Donald Trump advanced as a goal in the NATO. But the prime minister, Luís Montenegro, is at 2% by 2029, when this number should no longer be the minimum required. But what difference can Portugal make 2% defense?

“It can make a big difference, because Portugal in the context of NATO has a very relevant importance,” says Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira. Although it is “farther from the enemy,” the country is, he says, “very important in the context of combat.”

The military expert and commentator of CNN Portugal warns that there is “a very serious threat” to world security and that Portugal’s geographical location can lead the country to play an essential role in a possible conflict. “Portugal has a privileged strategic position because it is the European facade immediately in front of the US facade. Therefore, US reinforcements coming from the other side of the Atlantic enter Europe through Portugal, which is the shortest way, ”he begins by explaining, also underlining Russian interest in.

And continues: “Portugal acts as a communications zone of a theater of operations. If there is a serious threat of the Russian Federation, we do not have an enemy who is just Russian Federation – it becomes the Russian Federation another 800,000 men hardened by combat, if he conquer Ukraine and then we have the allies, such as China and Korea north ”. And, warns, “We may have something that can be very serious tomorrow, it can be a very serious threat to our security.”

In such a scenario, Portugal would be the “stretch”, which is crucial for a conflict. “War is not only done on fronts, it is often gained to protect the rear and attacking the enemy’s rear and we are the rear, we are the point that receives the reinforcements coming from the other side of the Atlantic,” he says.

On the other hand, José Azeredo Lopes guarantees that Portugal reaching 2% of GDP in defense would not make a special difference. “The pressure has long existed to reach 2%, which actually represent nothing from the point of view of capabilities. No one convinces me that if all states are at 2% Europe is defended, ”says José Azeredo Lopes.

Last year, 23 Member Countries of the Atlantic Alliance were committed to that of GDP in defense. “If it was once a political commitment, it has become an obligation made by states,” he says, explaining that such “does not mean that they are responsible for not taking over 2%.” “We are talking about a more political than legal consequence Nowadays, ”he says. Looking back, Portugal is one of eight of 32 members who do not yet comply with the minimum.

Together, the European Union Member States already invest 2% of their product in defense, as confirmed on Monday the secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte, on a visit to Portugal. Still, “no one would dares to say that they are already able to say that we are properly defended,” says Azeredo Lopes

For CNN Portugal commentator, “the problem is that we are systematically talking about financial spending.” And “much more than spending a lot of money, military mobility issues and adapt infrastructure are fundamental.” It is necessary, guarantees Azeredo Lopes, “invest enough to be defended against an aggressor but especially for this potential aggressor to hesitate.”

For Azeredo Lopes, it is “evident that Rutte has to do for life as the maximum representative of the born”, who “has to give a sign as clear as possible that European states really want to invest in defense.” But “the problem is that we are not integrated in our abilities, because Portugal can buy a weapon in the country, France can do it.”

“We are investing in parallel but we have a few communicating vessels – interoperability is very low. It is not the NATO’s fault. There had to be a fundamental political decision that gathered some of the main countries to develop defense industry alone, to develop capacity. Always hit a wall. The European states are not prepared, ”says Azeredo Lopes.

Meanwhile Donald Trump speaks of, a value not reached by anyone, not even by Poland, the state that invests the most, with 4.12% of the annual orlation. Between the value that has generated several criticisms and the 2%, the US presses to “negotiate at 3.5%”, says Azeredo Lopes. And, he adds, the European Union “is not sure what to do.” ”He admits.

The was in Portugal this Monday, where he met with the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister. Mark Rutte argues that channeling 2% of the GDP of each Member State is no longer enough for the defense of Europe, in line with what the US President has already said.

“We have to continue to adapt, we have to increase our efforts and our expenses. The goal of 2% [do Produto Interno Bruto] It won’t be enough, ”he said, warning that the Russian threat“ may seem far away ”. But he added, “I assure you that it is not.”

Portugal “invests madness” but is “misunderstood”

“It is very fond of implying the idea that the southern country is lazy,” says Azeredo Lopes, comparing the spending of the northern countries with those of the south in defense. For example, in the south, France spends 2.06% of GDP in defense, Italy dedicates 1.49% and Spain contributes 1.28%. On the other hand, the north, the stony dedicates 3.43% of GDP to defense, the Latvia spends 3.15% and Lithuania contributes 2.85%.

What explains the disparate values ​​is, for the experts heard by CNN Portugal, the proximity to the “great threat” that is Russia, and the north the more a country spent in defense. “Imagine that Russia was Spain. Didn’t we spend 3% or 4%? Of course we spent it, ”says Azeredo Lopes.

“What makes us not so concerned about the issue of defense is to be further. We feel more protected and spend less, ”agrees the Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira.

The military expert believes that nowadays “people look at investment in defense as a spending.” “They prefer to apply money to hospitals, pensions, social support system. But the truth is that the major goals of nation states are security and then progress and well-being. There is no progress and well-being if there is no security, ”he says.

Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira also denounces the “error” of political figures. “This word of spending in defense has to be taken from the speech of politicians. As long as our politicians continue to refer to the defense as a spending, the population will not adhere. The population has to realize that we have to invest in defense because the times require it. And Portugal has to comply with its part, ”he reinforces.

In turn, the commentator Azeredo Lopes speaks, however, in a “misunderstanding” to the fewer countries. “Southern countries, such as France, Spain, Italy and even Portugal – are always reputed to be little spending, but make a greater contribution much than other states in NATO missions, but no one calls it,” he says.

This is the case of Portugal, which “invests crazy things in the Central African Republic”. “Pressure over southern countries conveys a very unfair idea that southern countries do not contribute to anything. It is this reciprocal misunderstanding that leads to this acrimonia. ‘You don’t pay, you have to pay more’. It’s unfair to southern countries, but it doesn’t help to want to do things in the future, ”says Azeredo Lopes.