O Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) ends this Wednesday (29) its first meeting of the year. The new level of Selic – The basic interest rate of the country – which is currently 12.25% per year, should be released around 18:30.
The meeting of the board started on Tuesday (28) also marks the first decision of interest of Gabriel Galipolo as the newest president of the Central Bank (BC).
At his last meeting in December 2024, the Copom said he would return to Selic again at a percentage point now in January. The market bets that BC directors will comply with their guidance.
If it is confirmed, it will be the fourth time that the collegiate raises the rhythm of interest tightness.
The rate started the year 2024 falling from 11.75% in January to 10.5% per year in May. After that, he remained in the same track until September, when they returned the highs in Selic again. The advance has been kept in all meetings since then.
By 2025, the Focus report released on Monday (27) pointed out that interest should end at 15%, the same forecast of the last three weeks.
The convergence of inflation to the goal and the evolution of inflation dynamics was the factors cited by the BC at the time that will dictate the magnitude of the monetary squeeze.
Last year, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The number bursts the goal set by 3%, with a maximum tolerance of 1.5% more or less. That is, the ceiling would be an inflation at 4.5%.
This was the, when the system was created.
This is how Gabriel Galipolo’s work at the head of the municipality kicked off. He had to send a C, explaining the popping roof of the inflation target in 2024.
The monetary authority indicated in the document that within the goals defined by the government.
“Given a more adverse scenario for the convergence of inflation, it is confirmed, confirming the expected scenario, adjustments of the same magnitude in the next two meetings [do Copom]”, he wrote.
The scenario for this year was also designed by Galipolo in a letter, which indicated that the IPCA will be above the goal until the third quarter of 2025, Then enter the trajectory of decline, but still remaining above the goal.
