The trend for 2025 is an increase in the cost of electricity acquisition by distributors in the captive market, concluded a study by consulting firm TR Solutions. The average price is expected to be $ 270 per megawatt-hour (MW/h), up 9% compared to last year, according to service projections for energy tariffs (seven).
The price increase in the regulated market tends to expand the benefit of migration to the free hiring environment, according to the consultancy. The scenario is a reflection of the drought that affected the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants in 2024.
Balance to the consumer
“This year, surplus should not be observed in the centralizing account of tariff flags,” says TR Solutions Regulatory Director Helder Sousa.
This account, managed by the Electricity Commercialization Chamber (CCEE), concentrates the funds collected by the distributors when the tariff flags are activated, to the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) define the amount to which each concessionaire is entitled.
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In early 2024, the account registered surplus of about $ 10 billion, due to the most favorable hydrological conditions. This balance was returned to consumers in tariff review processes, which led to a 6% drop in the cost of energy acquisition by distributors over the past year.
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In the last year, with the drought, the scenario was different. In the second half of 2024, Aneel even triggered the Red Tariff Flag level 1, for the first time in more than three years.
Free Market Attraction
According to the Ibero -American Association for Energy Commercialization (AICE), discounts in the free environment in relation to the regulated market reach 49% in Brazil.
In addition to the increase in captive market prices, another factor that favors consumers attraction to the free market in the coming months is the opening for all consumers of high voltage.
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In the free market, the consumer fails to buy the energy negotiated by the distributor and starts to choose the supplier. According to experts, potential new customers are still getting to know this possibility better.
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In 2024, there was a strong migration, after opening to the high voltage, which allowed 100,000 consumers to be able to enter the free environment.
In all, from January to November, there were 23,698 migrations, three times more than that recorded in 2023. About 74% of consumers who made the movement are small and medium -sized companies, such as supermarkets and offices.
