Investors stop to take a breath. After four consecutive upward sessions in which Ibex 35 has not stopped beating brands, consolidation makes its way. Taking advantage of the results season of the results season and with the attention placed on the references from the other side of the Atlantic, the Spanish selective goes back 0.41% on Friday and loses the level of the 12,400 points. This decrease does not tarnish the good behavior of the Spanish Stock Exchange that, in addition to climbing 3.2% and chaining its sixth consecutive upward week, is recorded 6.67% in January, the best exercise start in two years. A behavior that follows the wake of the rest of European indices.
The type reduction, the reduced exposure to artificial intelligence and the good mouth taste that is leaving the results season have served so that IBEX 35 looks at levels not seen in 17 years, before the fall of Lehman Brothers It will end up causing the worst financial crisis since the great depression. Although the Spanish Stock Exchange reference index is still 28% below its maximums, the Ibex with dividends quotes in a record zone. This is especially highlighted in a Spanish bag in which the remuneration to the shareholder occupies a prominent role.
Only six Ibex 35 values (Grifols, Repsol, Solaria, Redeia and Sacyr) escape the profits while five are noted 10% or more. Within the latter, banks are placed one of the most weight businesses in the selective. While Sabadell (21.2%), BBVA (16.7%), CaixaBank (12.1%) and Santander (10.9%) try to squeeze to the maximum the good results that the financial sector continues to record. Together with the forceful profits of the financial sector, where some of its members are around 15 years, the 6.4% inditex rise stands out. The most valuable quoted of the Ibex 35 has been one of the most split to the rotation of portfolios. As investors have been reducing their exposure to large technological ones, they have taken the opportunity to take positions in values with fundamental solids that had lagged behind.
With 11 months ahead it is still soon to sing victory, but at the start of 2025 the market has attended what for years many analysts were waiting for: the European Variable rent manages to overcome the American. A less belligerent attitude in commercial matters by the US administration and the correction of large technological ones after the appearance of China Depseek have been desiccants. Bank of America analysts affirm that in January there has been the greatest rotation of US actions to European titles in almost a decade.
KEYS OF THE DAY
- While the Fed stopped the type drop cycle ,. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, warned of the “winds against” those who must face the eurozone, whose economy stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2024 and said that he hopes that “remain weak” in the short term, While he defended that the disinflation process is well aimed. In the face of 2025, Banca Marcha analysts expect the Fed will carry out two more cuts, while the ECB will sign four types of types.
- The president of the United States, Donald Trump, repeated strong tariff threats Thursday to deter Brics (emerging powers) to replace the US dollar.
- The Bank of Spain diffuses the advance of the balance of payments of the month of November.
- In Europe, the preliminary data of January of the IPC of France and Germany, the unemployment rate of the German country and the production price index of Italy and France in December are known.
- The private consumption deflator (PCE), the preferred reference of the Fed, behaves in line with the expected. The monthly rate rebounded 0.3%, placing the year -on -year index at 2.6%, above 2.4%of the previous month. For its part, the underlying PCE rebounds to 2.8%. The resistance that prices show come to confirm that Jerome Powell is in no hurry to lower the types. With a solid economy and labor market, the resistance shown by prices gives margin to keep the price of money without changes.
- Japan industrial production increased 0.3% in December compared to the preceding month, according to data published this Friday by the Government. The Japanese unemployment index was 2.4% in December, which represents a tenth less with respect to the preceding month.
- It pays a dividend on account of the results of 2024 of 0.231 euros gross per share, which will allocate a total amount of 447.7 million euros.
What do analysts say?
David Zahn, from Franklin Templeton: “The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its type of deposit by 25 basic points, to 2.75%, as planned. Analysts foresee new cuts, which could place the type in 2% at the end of 2025. The stagnation of the economy in euros, with a 0.0% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggests the need for a greater monetary relaxation. Although inflation remains a matter of concern, economic slowdown is likely to have priority. The next March forecasts will be fundamental to confirm the trajectory of higher ECB types cuts throughout 2025. A more accommodative ECB should favor European fixed income, especially to the short part of the market. ”
Karsten Junius, chief economist for J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM: “The ECB indicated that new cuts are likely. However, the magnitude, the rhythm and the date on which they will occur, are still details about which there are doubts, since the decisions will be taken at each meeting. Although current monetary policy remains restrictive, Lagarde did not indicate what level of interest rates considers the ECB as neutral. Nor did he specify if official interest rates would have to fall below that neutral level. We expect three cuts more than 25 basic points in each of the next three meetings until it is located in 2% in June and that another cut in the third quarter occurs ”.
What is the evolution of debt, currencies and raw materials?
The decline to $ 1.0387.
Petroleum, reference in Europe, advances up to $ 76.31
The 10 -year Spanish bonus performance drops slightly to 3,116%.
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