The Asteroid 2024 YR4 was classified by NASA as a level 3 threat on Torino’s impact risk scale, which goes from 0 to 10.
NASA scientists identified an asteroid, called 2024 YR4, with a small but remarkable hypothesis to collide with the earth in 2032. Although the probability of impact is estimated at 1 in 83, the asteroid is large enough to cause significant destruction if it reaches a populated area.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s latest terrestrial alert system (Atlas), the 2024 YR4 measures approximately 55 meters in diameter.
Although not large enough to threaten global extinction, experts estimate that the impact could generate an explosion of about 8 megatones- more than 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb released on Hiroshima in 1945.
Although currently moving away from Earth, the 2024 YR4 will make several approximations in the next 50 years. The most worrying date is December 22, 2032when the likelihood of impact is greater. Other notable passages are expected in 2028 and between 2032 and 2074, reports the.
NASA called the 2024 YR4 as a level 3 threat On the Torino Impact Risk Scale, which classifies the risks of asteroids from 0 to 10. A level 3 classification indicates a small probability of impact, however, the story shows that most asteroids of this level turns out to be disqualified after a deeper analysis.
Although impact hypotheses remain low, the discovery emphasizes the importance of planetary defense. Space agencies, including NASA, have been investing in asteroid deviation technologieslike Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart), which successfully changed the trajectory of an asteroid in 2022. These missions aim to develop techniques that can divert a dangerous asteroid from their route before it represents a real danger to the earth.
Although it is unlikely that the 2024 YR4 causes a global catastrophe such as the asteroid that has decimated the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, scientists have been committed to following and analyzing their trajectory in the coming years.
