O and A start the work of 2025 this Saturday (1st) with the broad favoritism of the senator (-AP) and the federal deputy (-PB) in the election of the presidents of the two houses, a double scenario of “already won” that has not occurred since 2003.
The apparent sky of brigadeiro on the route of the two candidates for the succession of (-mg) in the Senate and (-al) in the House demonstrates the power of the right-wing and right-wing parties in the House, who managed to unite around themselves a large Support fan, from PT to PL of.
It also shows, with the role of supporting the executive, the sedimentation of the strengthening of the congress started in 2015.
The election to the Senate command will start in the morning at 10am. Alcolumbre-which has already chaired the house from 2019 to 2021-, if none of them give up, astronaut senators Marcos Pontes (PL-SP), (Somos-MS), (Somos-ES) and Eduardo Girão (Novo-CE).
The election in the House is scheduled to start in the afternoon, at 4 pm, with Hugo Motta facing the unlucky Pastor Henrique Vieira (PSOL-RJ) and (Novo-RS). The term is two years.
If the favoritism is confirmed, it will be another victory of the center and the other center and right subtitles, a group for now hegemonic and that has left both the left and the pocket opposition restricted to the fringes of the legislature.
The last time the elections in Congress took place with broad favoritism was in 2003, the first year of Lula’s first government, with João Paulo Cunha (PT) in the House and José Sarney (PMDB) in the Senate.
Senate elections have always been won by center-right politicians since redemocratization. In the House, the first two administrations of Lula (2003-2010) and the first of (2011-2014) managed to get four left-wing presidents, three from the PT.
The last time the left commanded the house, however, it was in the 2011-2013 biennium, with Marco Maia (PT-RS). In 2015, at the beginning of his second term, Dilma worked to put the petista Arlindo Chinaglia (SP) again in the presidency of the House, but there happened the milestone that ended the left management and that boosted the incipient time of Congress. .
(then at PMDB), which had recreated about a year earlier the centron, and became mayor. Much under his baton, would be sacrament in 2016.
The main change that led to the empowerment of Congress during this period was the approval of the mandatory execution of most, in addition to the multiplication of its value.
Earlier, governments set up their foundations and guaranteed the fidelity of deputies and senators much due to the management of budget amendments – reclaiming the release of infidels and oppositionists, for example.
The political fragility of the executive in Dilma’s second term and (2016-2018) and Bolsonaro (2019-2022) enabled Congress to force the execution of amendments and vitamin in values never before seen what its main political mechanism is today.
In 2015, each deputy and senator had $ 16 million under a splices, and the government had the power not to pay any penny if it wanted to.
After this date and year by year, the imposition of amendments was growing ,.
In 2024, each deputy had at least R $ 38 million and each senator, R $ 70 million. In addition to this amount, there are collective amendments, managed by the benches and Congress summit. In total, Congress sends more than $ 50 billion a year – nor $ 135 million per day, on average.
This will even be, since the Minister of the Supreme Court has blocked part of the execution of the so -called Commission Amendments (the only ones whose execution is not mandatory), charging more transparency and supervision.
Amendments also have a long history of corruption and are currently the target of investigations from – which has left apprehensive parliamentarians, in another ingredient of congressional tensioning with the judiciary and the executive, to whom the PF is subordinate.
From the point of view of projects, there is a black hole about what should be the priority of deputies and senators, as the campaigns of the two candidates have boiled down to backstage meetings and negotiations for internal power division at directors and commissions .
The very profile of Alcolumbre and Hugo Motta contributes to this, as they are not political formulators or affectionate to interviews and discourses, prioritizing behind the scenes and negotiations involving the amendments.
Some topics, however, should be dealt with in the short future, including the number 1 agenda of Bolsonarism and that, in addition to the 2025 Union Budget, which should have been voted on in December.
In addition, from him, the government projects, not yet sent, regulating social networks and lifting the lane, promise of Lula’s campaign.
Alcolumbre is 47 years old and was member for many years of the low clergy of the Chamber. Already in the Senate, he managed to defeat in 2019 the hitherto favorite (MDB-AL) and presided over the house until 2021. Pacheco made his successor and maintained in the last four years ample political power, including the distribution of parliamentary amendments.
Hugo Motta should be the youngest mayor of history. At 35, he was raised his candidacy by Lira, who chose him over other competitors, in particular (União Brasil-BA) and (PSD-BA).
There is an expectation among governors that the executive’s relationship with the house can improve with the arrival of Hugo, especially in the political articulation. This is because (Secretary of Institutional Relations). In addition, the Paraíba deputy is described as a conciliator and more open to dialogue.
Lira should as the only one who managed to choose and get the successor amid the set of deputies.
See the chronology of parliamentary amendments, the main political instrument today of Congress
Before 2014
- The execution of parliamentary amendments was a political decision of the government, which could ignore the destination presented by the congressmen.
2014 (Dilma Rousseff Government 1)
- In November 2013, it introduced it into the Budgetary Guidelines Law, which establishes the Budget for the following year) to 2014 the obligation to execute, by the Executive, of Parliamentary Amendments
2015 (Government Dilma Rousseff 2)
- Constitutional Amendment 86/2015 placed in the Constitution the mandatory execution rule of individual amendments, the so -called imposing budget, with some rules.
- That year each senator and deputy had R $ 16.3 million in individual amendments
2019 (Jair Bolsonaro government)
- Congress expanded the imposing budget by approving Constitutional Amendment 100, which also made the state benches amendments.
- The Congress has set a significant value for the amendments made by the budget rapporteur, R $ 30 billion for the following year.
- Jair Bolsonaro vetoed the measure and Congress just did not overthrow the veto by agreement that kept $ 20 billion in the hands of the rapporteur general.
- Bolsonaro also gave a complete autonomy to the Congress summit deciding where all this amount would be allocated.
2020 (Jair Bolsonaro Government)
- With the 2019 agreement, made by Bolsonaro to maintain a support base in Congress, the amount intended for amendments made a jump and reached R $ 44 billion.
2022 (Jair Bolsonaro Government)
- During the election campaign, Lula and promised to bury him, but in practice he did not do that.
- It declared the rapporteur’s amendment, which were used by the congressional summit for distribution to parliamentarians according to their political conveniences. Congress then took this money out of the rapporteur’s hand and moved to the commissions, keeping the distribution model
2023 (Lula administration)
- Each deputy had R $ 32 million in individual amendments (senators, R $ 59 million), amounts that have mandatory execution and which in some cases may more than double due to bench amendments and “extra amendments”.
2024 (Lula government)
- Each deputy was entitled to individual amendments in the amount of R $ 37.9 million. Each senator, R $ 69.6 million, which does not include bench and commission. The total amount of the amendments exceeded the house of R $ 50 billion.
