After leaving the hospital in December, Luiz Inácio da Silva showed an elegant look. The Brazilian president adopted a Panama hat to hide scar from emergency cranial surgery. It was performed to contain a bleeding after it slip into the bathroom and hit the head.
Lula, who is 79, has a good mood. He recently joked that he could live until he was 120. His Workers Party () insists that he will compete again at the next presidential election in Brazil in 2026.
Behind the scenes, there is less certainty. On January 20, the newspaper reported that Lula surprised his office by saying that he would not compete again unless he was in good health. The Workers Party was launched in a frenzy. Lula is the only popular figure of the party.
A as the Brazil in which he was forged has changed. Rather an industrial power built on a unionized and mostly Catholic workforce, today Brazil is marked by high -tech agriculture and applications workers who get together in evangelical temples.
As the star of Lula disburse, the party he built, who dominates the Brazilian left, faces “an identity crisis,” says, author of one.
Lula’s remarkable life story and his personal magnetism helped him to connect with voters in ways that most politicians can only dream. Born in a poor family in northeastern Brazil, a region marked by drought, he moved to Sao Paulo, where he worked on a lathe operator and later led the Metalworkers Union.
It is the first Brazilian president to be elected for three non -consecutive terms. Barack Obama once called him “the guy.”
Or face
During his first two terms, from 2003 to 2010, Chinese demand for Brazilian commodities fired. State Petrobras discovered huge gross oil reserves. This has helped fund a large social welfare program and reduce poverty.
So Lula’s luck is over. Commodities prices fell and in 2014 the PT was involved in a corruption scandal. Construction companies were paying bribes to Petrobras executives and politicians, including many of the PT. In 2017, the case reached Lula, and he was sentenced to nine years in prison (his conviction). Throughout this time, the PT conducted aggressive campaigns against any rival potential of Lula, maintaining its control over the party.
The corruption scandals have harmed Lula’s reputation, but he remains a giant of Brazilian politics. After his release, he recovered the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist in 2023.
Fernando Morais, Lula’s biographer, describes him as “a buffalo”, harsh, disciplined and energetic. He minimized concerns about his age by implying that he has a lot of sex with his wife, who is 21 years younger.
A survey of more than 8,500 Brazilians conducted between December 4 and 9 suggested that Lula. However, a thin majority of Brazilians also said he should not compete again. This year “things will get complicated” as candidates dispute Lula’s blessing, says Morais.
At the top of the list of potential successors in the PT is, the Minister of Finance. Haddad is considered a pragmatic and a rare voice in the government that defends fiscal restraint. However, this attracted the wrath of the PT base.
His academic profile – he has diplomas in law, and philosophy and wrote a doctoral dissertation of “historical materialism” – it is a difficult choice to sell. As PT presidential candidate in 2018, he was defeated by Bolsonaro, who surfed an anti-stablishment wave to power.
Powerful couple
deputy from Sao Paulo and young star on the left, it still does not seem to have enough political weight. She also ran for the São Paulo City Hall, but received only 10% of the votes.
Its partner, mayor of Recife, the capital of the home of Lula, Pernambuco, can have better chances. In October, he went. Both are 31 years old and are therefore subject to accusations of inexperience.
When Lula’s name is not in the ballot box, the PT is fragile, and center right parties dominate. The number of municipalities with PT mayors.
Its base has changed from the Southeast, the industrial heart, to the Northeast, where many people depend on government aid. This is a disadvantage, as right -wing governments have also adopted the distribution of benefits.
“The PT used to depend on the poor organized,” says Barros. “Now they depend on the poor disorganized.” While Lula prepares to withdraw, the movement he built may have difficulty surviving him.
Text, translated by Angela Pinho, published under license. The original article in English can be found at www.economist.com
