Russia has changed its tactic and Ukraine is not able to respond. Now time is running out in Pokrovsk, where Russia can open the doors of a new Ukrainian region and cut Ukraine steel production to half.
Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the outskirts of the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region by launching dozens of small -scale attacks in different directions to try to overload the Ukrainian defenses and surround the city. These tactics are getting results and Russian forces are being able to advance in the flanks of this important Logistics Center of the Ukrainian Army. For Ukrainians the Russian plan is clear: surround the strategic city to Ukraine and forcing the defenders to withdraw, thus opening the doors for the conquest of Donetsk.
“For the first time, [os russos] They started fighting intelligently. For the first time, they began to fight not only with human waves, but with attempts to cover, with attempts to circumvent a large city and force the Ukrainian forces to abandon it, ”said Victor Trehubov, spokesman for Military Group Khortysia, responsible for the defense of the sector.
The Russian forces adapted and altered the way to combat in this sector. Contrary to what was happening in the past, the Russian army now resorts to small groups of soldiers, transported by motorcycles or light vehicles. This tactic allows Russia to move its military quickly to surprise the Ukrainian defenders in the trenches and to benefit from their army numerical superiority.
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst of Finland’s Black Bird Group, told Reuters that Ukraine’s difficulties in facing these small dimensions of the Russian infantry is due to the lack of staff to fully cover the front lines.
The Russian command is using these methods on the vast plains that exist around the city, where movement with light vehicles is easier and where there are fewer physical obstacles. The goal is to avoid urban combat at all costs. In the past, battles like Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Vuhlegda had a high loss weight for Russia, although they were able to achieve what was left of these locations.
And the results of this tactic are in sight. The maps provided by Deepstate UA show that, although it has not yet reached the limits of the city, Russia is even achieving territorial gains to this and west of Pokrovsk. Russian forces are so close to the city that all supply lines are under Russian fire, which makes the defense an increasingly difficult exercise.
Battle Front Map on the outskirts of the city of Pokrovsk (Deepstate UA)
Under constant fire from aviation and Russian artillery, life inside the city is complicated. Already there are almost no services available and any entry and exit must be done with the support of armored vehicles. According to the governor of the region, about seven thousand inhabitants remain in Pokrovsk. Before the Russian invasion, 60,000 people made this city their home.
The city spent the first years of war away from the front line and was the main logistics warehouse that linked the city of Dnipro to Donbass. Armament, armored and groceries were brought from Dnipro by train to Pokrovsk and, from there, were distributed throughout the front. However, the fall of Avdiivka earlier this year and the rapid advance of Russian troops made this Ukrainian logistics bastion in one of the main targets of the Russian army.
The conquest of Pokrosvk by Russia would steal Ukraine from one of its most important mines. On the outskirts of this city there is the only my Ukrainian that produces coke coal, fundamental to the Ukrainian metallurgical industry. In early January, the company that explores Mina, Metinvest, announced the suspension of operations for safety reasons. The fall of the mine would mean that Ukraine would reduce steel production by more than half.
Pokrovsk fall can have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine, as it opens the door of the Dnipro region to Russia, a Ukrainian province that had not yet had Russian troops in its territory. In addition, it calls into question a key road for supplying other cities on the front line, such as Chasiv Yar.
Michael Kofman, an researcher at Think Tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Reuters that Pokrosvk’s conquest could lead Russia to use the city as a base for future operations. “Russian forces are preparing a potential advance for the Dnipropetrovsk region, but behind the front lines, they are building and repairing railway lines. So they can advance with their own logistics and this allows them to advance to west, ”he told Reuters.
