This Sunday, as has happened throughout February 2 since 1887, Marmota Phill will leave your burden around 7:30 am in Punxsutawneyin Pennsylvania. The tradition says that if the animal see its own shadow, winter will extend for another six weeks in the United States. Otherwise, people will witness the spring’s triumph over the coldest season of the year.
Worldwide popularized after the film “Time spell”o Marmot DayIt attracts a crowd to the small town every year: the state tourism site speaks of about 30,000 people on average. And the event is also televised.
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But despite the tradition, the “accuracy” of marmota has been often questioned in recent years. Meteorological data from an ocean and atmospheric national administration division showed last year that Phil has only hit 40% of the time – and almost never to the west of the US.
The non -profit independent research group Climate Central has even commented that if the marmota expected only the beginning of spring every year, it would be twice as much more accurate what it is now. That is, playing a “face or crown” would have better results.
There is a new factor to be taken into consideration: climate change. This helped anticipate spring in the United States in 8 of the last 10 years.
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But there is another important aspect about the Punxsutawney Phill forecast, the psychological. Researcher Savva Shanaev of the Northumbria University and colleagues found that the market gets a boost when the marmot foresees early spring, that is, investors are optimistic.
The study discovered a calendar “anomaly” in the United States stock market associated with Punxsutawney Phill prognosis on Marmota Day. Between 1928 and 2021, the S&P 500 proceeded substantially after Phill’s “prediction” of an early spring, while returns were moderately negative after he “predicted” a long winter.
“The difference in abnormal purchase and retention returns two weeks after Marmota Day is 1.85% statistically and economically significant,” the study says.
