Study was performed by National Institute of Health Doctor Ricardo Jorge (INSA) to evaluate the contribution of different demographic groups for the transmission of Covid-19.
People between 30 and 39 were the most contributed to the transmission of At the beginning of the pandemic in Portugal, but the most affected by the disease were over 70, reveals a study.
The study was conducted by a team of researchers from the Department of Epidemiology of the and aimed to evaluate contribution of different demographic groups for the transmission of Covid-19, as well as its epidemiological characteristicsincluding susceptibility to infection and transmission capacity.
The researchers developed Mathematical Modeling Methods to study SARS-COV-2 virus transmission dynamics During the first phase of the epidemic in Portugal in early 2020.
In the work carried out by Insa, the Portuguese population was stratified by age groupbeing the epidemiological characteristics of each group taken into consideration, as well as the standard of contacts between the groups.
“The results showed that the age group that most contributed to the transmission of Sars-Cov-2 during the initial phase of the epidemic in Portugal (March 2020) were individuals among the 30 and 39 yearsit should also be noted that individuals between 30 and 59 years had a relative contribution of more than 60%“But greeting it.
Researchers refer to these groups The most affected by the disease were not necessarilysince the most affected age group was 70 or over years.
However, the contribution of over 70 years to transmission was considerably smaller than that of people between 30 and 39 years.
“These results have shown that prioritizing measures in the groups most affected by the disease may reduce the impact on health services, but it is not necessarily the best strategy to reduce the transmission of the infection,” says the authors of the work released on the InSA ‘site’.
Evaluate and project the impact
The study carried out also developed a mathematical tool which allows you to rapidly evaluate and design the impact of a public health intervention.
“The results obtained allow a better understanding of the groups to prioritize for public health interventions in the context of an outbreak of a disease with characteristics similar to Covid-19 in the Portuguese population,” they highlight.
The study also designed hypothetical scenarios of alteration of susceptibility and transmission capacity in individuals in the population, which may be related to the introduction of Personal protective equipmentin the impact on the number of infections in subsequent generations, verifying that this measure is more effective when applied to age groups that contribute most to transmission.
For the study authors, the work done has the potential to contribute to the Resource Optimization In the allocation of public health measures, influencing public health policies in combating epidemics of infectious diseases with characteristics similar to COVID-19.
Consider that the developed model can also serve as a Quick response tool in a case of an outbreak.
