European stock markets are dragged today on the stage that investors feared most before November 5, the commercial war: measures that were for the United States. Europe, including the IBEX, has started with 2% drops although one hour later these falls have moderated to the 1% environment, and losses of draft are also expected in Wall Street and Asia’s bags have registered strong falls, while In the currency market, although later the climb has moderated and quotes in 1,023.
The impact of the measures goes far from the direct affected countries, in part because Trump has promised more measures, partly because the supply chains of all countries are affected. In addition, the commercial war arrives with many bags in the area of historical maximums. Thus, the Ibex drops 1.1% to 12,230 points, lower decrease than the Dax, Cac or Euro Stoxx 50, which loses around 1.5% each. While the United States has not applied tariffs on the euro zone, it has promised that it will do so, and it is not necessary to wait for these measures to make so that investors make their cabals on the impact. In the Spanish market, the clearest punishment is for industrial companies such as Arceormittal, which loses 3.6% after fitting a 9% cut in its first change. Fluidra, with business in the United States, leaves 3.2%. It is also in the BBVA focus, in this case due to the impact of the fall of the Mexican weight, 2%, since the bank obtains in this currency around 40% of its benefits. The bank moderates its 4% falls in the opening at 2.35% falls 4.07% in the opening and drags Sabadell, which yields 2%. But the falls are for almost the entire market, less for Repsol, Naturgy, Endesa or IAG that advance around 1%.
In the European market, automobile manufacturers such as Stellantis are in the focus, which with factories in Mexico and Canada loses 6.8%. Volkswagen drops 5.75%, Mercedes 4.95%and BMW 4.82%. Also component companies such as Valeo Michelin or Continental. In the industrial sector, in addition to Arcellor, Thyssekrupp drops more than 4.5%. But they also suffer values such as the Moller Maersk freight company. In particular, the manufacturer of private airplanes Bombardier is in a very delicate position, having headquarters in Canada, manufacturing operations in Mexico and sales of its jets in the United States. For spirits of spirits such as Diageo (-3%) or Pernod Ricard (2.8%) Imports suppose most of their sales in the US.
In Asia, while the Chinese bags remain closed for the New Year, the Tokyo Nikkei Index has closed with a decrease of 2.6%, the Kospi of Seoul has fallen 2.5% and the Sydney bag has lost the 1 , 7%. Exporting companies are being the most affected. In the industry, in addition to the fall of Arcellor, the 4.6% that is left Thyssenkrupp.
Beyond the concrete impact, the commercial war changes the scenario of the investment, since the measures will affect the entire value chain, generate economic uncertainty and, above all, revive the ghost of inflation, since taxes make imported articles more expensive. And expectation of greater inflation moves the prospects for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in its upcoming meetings. But, for the moment, the debt market shows contained movements. The two -year bonus of the United States rises its profitability just half a basic point, while the 10 -year -old cuts its performance, according to the first contributions.
KEYS OF THE DAY
In Europe, the preliminary data of the January Eurozone and the manufacturing PMI indicator stand out today.
The manufacturing PMI and the manufacturing ISM of January are known today.
The activity in the Manufacturing Industry of China slowed last January, according to the Manager Purchasing Index (PMI, sector reference indicator) released on Monday by the private digital newspaper Caixin. This indicator, prepared by the British Economic Information Company IHS Markit and that many international investors take as a reference to analyze the Chinese manufacturing sector, descended from 50.5 points from December to 50.1 in January.
What do analysts say?
Bankinter: “The entry into force of tariff increases by US The bonds, which will act as a refuge. The fear of the consequences of a possible commercial war will result in a bearish and erratic week
“The markets were waiting for a slower application,” Urbahn, Berenberg Strategy Head, told Bloomberg, who anticipates response measures from Canada, China and Mexico. “One thing is safe, volatility is here to stay,” he said.
“Although Europe has so far avoided US tariff Who will be next”Said Emmanuel Cau, Barclays strategist. “Last week diversification occupied everything; This week can be more about coverage. ”
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