Germany prepares for federal elections to Bundestagthe lower house of Parliament, which will be held February 23after the one directed by the country since 2021. The current chancellor, the social democrat Olaf Scholzface the elections in a moment of enormous weakness and with the wind of surveys in favor of the conservatives of the CDU, led by the Democristian Friedrich Merz. Polls also predict the growth of ultras of Alternative for Germany (AFD), which can test the continuity of the sanitary cord of the two great games against the extreme right.
The average of the surveys prepared by grants an advantage of between 8 and 9 points to the CDU (also called Union for its coalition with the CSU in Bavaria) and places the extreme right of AfD in second position, five points ahead of the SPDto which in turn the green ones of The Greensthat are two points from the social democrats. The tendency of the last days is that the CDU and the SPD are giving ground in favor of AFD and Die Grünen. Scholz’s hitherto partner would suffer some wear regarding the 2021 elections, but nothing compared to the third ally, the liberals of the FDPthat could be overcome even by The left And for a newly created populist and proruse leftist brand, the.
February 23 elections will be governed by the New Electoral Law that promoted the government of Scholz and that partially knocked down the German Constitutional Court. One of the main changes is the reduction of the number of Bundestag seats, from 736 to 630which sets the majority necessary to be invested Chancellor in 316 deputies. The German electoral system is based on a double vote: With the first the candidate of each of the 299 constituencies And with the second, which is a vote to a closed list of the game, the number of parliamentarians that each force will have. If a party receives in a ‘Land’ (State) more deputies by means of the first vote of those obtained by the second, an equivalent number of seats is added.
After years of decline, the SPD He recovered in 2021 and won by narrow margin to the CDUwhich allowed Scholz to become chancellor at the head of a ‘traffic light’ coalition of social democrats (SPD), liberals (liberals (FDP) and green (The Greens). But the discontent of the voters has been growing in parallel to the deterioration of the, which is close to entering into recession. On the other hand, the Democristians, who in the last elections accused the wear and tear of the 16 years of government of Angela Merkelhave managed to overcome supporting Merz’s moderate profile, which rejects any alliance with AfD.
The ultras could give the ‘sorpasso’ to the SPD, but lack real options to influence governance. The most plausible scenario that the surveys reflect would be an alliance between the CDUhe SPD and the green of The Greens. For its part, the liberal free democratic party (FDP) runs the danger of falling below the threshold of 5% necessary to ensure representation in the Bundestag.
He German electoral system It is highly proportional, so polls are a good photograph of the result that the polls can throw. A panorama that right now suggests a very fragmented hemicycle and long post -election negotiations before achieving a stable government.
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