Putin imposes seven conditions for the end of the war that move away peace

After the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections of the United States, in political and diplomatic circles Talk tirelessly that they could start this year. This same morning, the Republican has emphasized that he is having “conversations Very constructive“With both parties to pave the land.

Several NATO countries are also considering send forces of peace to Ukraine once the hostilities or establish demilitarized areas in that country. The details of what can come are not to use speculation and analysis meat.

But “all this seems prematureat best, “writes Boris Bondarev, a Russian diplomat who resigned in protest of Ukraine invasion in 2022., Bondarev insists that “The war is not over” And “the president has not achieved his goals”, so it is a bit precipitated to talk about peace and conditions. Everything is too open, warns.

The “western uprising” for the “maintenance of peace” transmits, in his opinion, “His lack of a sensible strategy to end war”. In the last three years, “No one has proposed a strategy that understands the future security architecture in Europe and the world”complaint. In addition, the “lack of decisive action from the West to support Ukraine has created a vacuum that Moscow will be luscious to fill. “

Before establishing international negotiations about this contest, which next month turns three years old, is to establish what it will be about. “End the war,” he says, is “a good motto to win votes”, but it is “Too vague to understand how it could be in real life”. How will hostilities end? What will be the positions of the parties in conflict? Who controls what regions? What measures will be implemented to guarantee peace and who should do it? Etc. There are dozens and dozens of questions of this type, but “even these questions are premature,” says the author.

First, Bondarev writes, Any negotiator or facilitator must understand what war is about and what are the objectives of each part. “Here we see a dangerous abyss In the thought of the West, where politicians argue that Putin wants some territorial profits. This cannot be further from the truth. “

Putin and his environment, he adds, “prioritize his political survivalwhich depends on the preservation of the established power regime. “Since all opposition and resistance to the regime within the country” has been repressed With success “, the Kremlin sees the West, mainly to the United States,” as the main threatthat, according to Putin’s elite (mostly KGB officials who cling to his cold war mentality), he seeks destroy the Putin regime and the Russian civilization, which, according to them, is the last bastion against the unbridled mastery of the United States in the world. “

Moscow believes that the only way to protect from US activities “is divide the world into isolated spheres of influence“. Putin seeks”impose personal sovereignty At least about the postsoviet space and, preferably, on the old Warsaw Cove American hegemonists in place and preserve your power. “

That is why Kremlin decided to repeat the 2014 annexation on a larger scale, organizing a “small victorious war” with Ukraine. “The conquest of this country would give Putin the status of A true Russian land collectiona ruler big and invincibleconsolidating its popularity for the coming years, “he says.

“The most important thing is that it would show the entire world that Neither the United States nor NATO – The greatest military power on the planet– They can do anything To stop Russia. Putin’s Russia is the winner. Now they are Moscow and their allies like China and Iran – not the West – who have the last word In world politics. “

Thus, the war that Putin has launched against Ukraine “It is a current world order attack without facing the West.” It would not be an exaggeration to describe this war as “The first phase of a new World War designed to redesign the political map of our planet”. Moscow has talked openly about his plan to “correct“What considers a historical error that left Russia outside the international scene.

Since last January, the Russian Army progresses very slowly and suffers huge losses. Get a victory only by military media It will be very difficult. Therefore, Moscow’s current strategy “It is taking Ukraine for wear”launching constant attacks against civil and energy infrastructure and trying to sow discord in the West to undermine the necessary unity to continue supporting Ukraine militarily.

“Putin hopes that over time, War fatigue extends to both Ukrainian society and western countries, Especially to Europe, which will lead to a reduction or even at the end of military support to kyiv, “says La Tribuna.

The Russian leader is willing to take advantage of any West attempt to take Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. If an agreement is reached, even if it is temporary, “Putin will demand Important concessions that will serve as the basis for subjecting Ukraine through growing political and military pressure“.

As the initiative of the negotiations does not come from the Russian government, but from the US, “Moscow will decide what is acceptable and what does not”. “Putin can always decline Any suggestion, since he hopes to succeed at some point if he crushes Ukraine, “says the diplomat.

According to Augura, “Putin any remote possibility of admission of Ukraine in NATO will be categorically opposedas well as any NATO troops shipping to Ukraine to be parked in a demilitarized damping zone, which would mean de facto that Ukraine would be under the protection of NATO. “

“No high fire agreement, not even temporary, can be signed without the commitment to lift all or at least part of the sanctions to Moscow: This will be one of Putin’s main conditions, “he says.

Judging by the previous statements of the Kremlin, an agreement that Moscow would consider acceptable would be the following, with seven inalienable points:

“An agreement of these characteristics It can hardly be considered an equitable and mutually beneficial agreement“. By virtue of these conditions,” Putin will weaken Ukraine to the point that it will lose its independence and show the world the world NATO inability and, in particular, of the United States to resist Your ambitions. In the eyes of the international community, This will symbolize a greater decline of Western power“.

“An agreement of these characteristics can hardly be considered an equitable and mutually beneficial agreement”

“Humiliate” the US

The “huge” military and economic superiority of the United States and NATO on Russia “will be revealed Like a miragesince they are not willing to use their influence. “” Thus, the world will see that the West is weak and He does not deserve to occupy the top of the world hierarchy“, dice.

This demonstrated weakness will make any peace “Ephemeral“. Moscow and other revisionists will take advantage of it to Attack the global interests of the West, The author understands. “It is obvious that Any temporary solution to the issue – a fire or a truce – will cause more problems to Ukraine and the West“.

Putin’s goal is not so much winning as “Humillar to the United States”. The idea that both parties can benefit from an agreement has always been oblivious to Russian political thought.

If Ukraine and their western allies reject such an agreement, “they will be accused of Biblismwhile Putin will smile And he will say he did what he could. “” Russian propaganda will be furious and will paint the western side with the darkest colorswhile Russian troops continue to fight and bombard the routinely, “he prevents.

Hence the conclusion of the text: “A commitment to Putin that also respects kyiv’s interests and his allies is, in principle, impossible“Why? Because” Putin You will never be satisfied unless your enemy is weakened. There are no points in common. One of the parties must recognize the superiority of the other. “

The conclusion that can be taken out of all this is simple: “This conflict is already configuring the contours of a new world”. “The challenge cannot be negotiated. One is needed Wise and thorough strategy to stop war without inviting other possible revisionist To continue playing this game. The question that arises before the West is simple: win or lose. “

“There is no way for both parties to leave these discussions in stronger positions,” concludes.