The probability that the asteroid shock against the earth increases. The American NASA now calculates that there is a chance that this body hit our planet on January 22, 2032. The European Space Agency has also re -evaluated its calculations up to. Both statistics assume that the possibility that this body ends up finally passing by without supposing any threat is almost 98%. Until yesterday the risk had been located at 1.2%.
The Coordination Center for objects close to the ESE Earth that will make a daily update on the asteroid, which has suddenly sneaked into the list of bodies that raise some risk for the earthlings. These data will be updated with the observations of their position that are made with most telescopes available both on land and in space. In any case, knowing the exact orbit of a body like this is a very complicated task, due to the many factors that can influence it. And the one that is expected that this numerical value evolves in future dates “first increasing and then decreasing, if this asteroid follows the pattern of similar past discoveries.”
ESA recalls that the asteroid has “an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters” and a probability of impact that “classifies as an event that ‘deserves the attention of astronomers’, which has triggered an intense activity of observation in the community of planetary defense ”.
The 2024 YR4 is a level 3 body on the Turin scale, which measures the threat of the asteroids from 0 to 10. The European agency remembers the case of Apofis, a 375 -meter space rock that in 2004 reached level 4 . However, after the analysis of file data prior to 2004, he clarified that there was no impact possibility.
The body was discovered in December 2024 from the. It is too small to cause a global catastrophe, but it could destroy a city if it came to a populated area. Much of its impact depends on still unknown factors, such as its composition and the angle of entry into the earth’s atmosphere.
The Center for the study of objects close to NASA’s land has said: “In the remote possibility of an impact of 2024 YR4, this would occur along a corridor from the east of the Pacific Ocean, the north of South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabic Sea and South Asia ”. This organism has developed a graph that represents with a triangle the current uncertainty of the asteroid trajectory. Only 1.6% of the entire surface of this polygon would correspond to an impact with the Earth.
Two specialized groups of the United Nations are studying the trajectory of this body: the international asteroid alert network, and the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG). These two organizations were created to coordinate the international response to such a threat. The SMPAG coordinates the technical knowledge of the main spatial agencies, including the United States and the, chaired by this group. Its function is to recommend a specific response to dangerous asteroids, including its study and the proposal of mitigation or diversion measures, if necessary.
The SMPAG met virtually on January 31 to analyze the “very small possibility of an impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 in December 2032 ″, as published by the agency in a. This group is activated if there is an impact probability greater than 1% and is a body of more than 50 meters. “The conclusion is that it is too early to take any measure. However, the SMPAG will monitor the evolution of this impact threat and data on the size of this body, ”said the body.
The 2024 YR4 orbit around the Sun describes a wide ellipse. Currently, the body moves away from the earth almost in a straight line, which makes it difficult to study its curved trajectory as time passes. In the coming months, the asteroid will begin to fade out of view from Earth. During this period, ESA will coordinate asteroid observations with increasingly powerful telescopes, culminating with the use of the very large telescope of the Austral European Observatory in Chile to collect as much data as possible.
It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 disappears from the view before any possibility of impact in 2032 can be completely discard In 2028, the agency explained in a.
