11 states are at risk of blackout for overload, says report

by Andrea
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Reason is the generation of surplus energy produced by solar panels, says ONS (National Electrical System Operator)

The (National Electrical System Operator) warned that 11 states are risks of overload on the power grid. The reason presented by the agency is the production of energy by solar panels in homes and trades.

Brazil produces 33 GW of energy in the MMGD modality (micro and distributed minigeration), composed mostly of photovoltaic solar energy in homes and commercial establishments. It is estimated that production will reach 50 GW by 2029.

When the energy generated by the solar panels is not used, it causes a “Reverse Flow” in the electrical system. The traditional path of electricity was unique: from the great generators to substations to the end consumer.

Now the surplus energy produced by MMGD returns to the transmission system. This creates a two -way road and a risk of overload in the substation. Overload can cause blackout dropping to the system.

The ONS coordinates the operations of electricity generation and transmission facilities. The agency prepared the medium -term electric operation plan of SIN (National Interconnected System) from 2025 to 2029. Here are the report released in December 2024 (PDF – 28 MB).

According to ONS studies, there are 11 states at risk of overload:

  1. Bahia;
  2. Goiás;
  3. Mato Grosso;
  4. Minas Gerais;
  5. Paraíba;
  6. Pernambuco;
  7. Piauí;
  8. Rio Grande do Norte;
  9. Rio Grande do Sul;
  10. Roraima;
  11. São Paulo.

Mato Grosso has 94% of border substations with “reverse flow”. The state with the largest percentage. Then are Piauí, with 73%, and Minas Gerais, with 43%.

The report recommends that strategies be set to ensure efficient operation of the energy network with the challenges caused by “Increasing decentralization of generation resources”.

They emphasize “The need for distributors to assume a more active role, acting as distribution system operators (DSS) in a coordinated manner with ONS”.

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