Future president of Ecuador may face the worst crisis in half a century

Despite a bloody drug war, a collapse economy and a serious energy crisis, Ecuadorians are optimistic about the country’s future before . The last years have been brutal and chaotic for the a picturesque Andean nation of about 18 million people who have served as a stability stronghold in a problematic region.

Energy cuts caused by a historic drought plunged the country into darkness. Drug -powered violence led to the murder of a presidential candidate, controlling criminal gang arrests, and attacking a television channel for gunmen while their journalists broadcast live. But a survey published in December by the local company communicates showed that more than 50% of voters believe their country will be better this year.

“Why?” Asks the analysts, less optimistic. The winner among President Daniel Noboa, who defends the liberalization of the economy, or his leftist rival Luisa González will face several challenges. “Ecuador is going through a very difficult time, I think it’s in the worst crisis since we return to democracy,” says Leonardo Laso, a political analyst Leonardo Laso.

Doly, with strategic ports in the Pacific and squeezed among the two largest cocaine producers in the world – Colombia and Peru – Ecuador has become a drug paradise. “Ecuador is home to the Albanian and Balkanic Maphias, the Italian ‘Nndrangheta and Turkish mafias,” says Douglas Farah, security consultant and analyst on Latin America.

“And now you have local gangs like Los Lobos and Los Choneros, which fight for territory so that they can transport the product through Ecuador to their new buyers in Europe and Asia,” he added. This transformation left record levels of murders, extortion and kidnapping, which exceeded the abilities of public forces.

Ecuadorians have never experienced this kind of violence, ”said Farah. “They are being hit by a completely new phenomenon, for which they are not prepared.” Noboa’s answer was to mobilize the Armed Forces, arrest gang leaders, and intercept cocaine loads whenever possible.

The president has given the public the feeling that something is being done, although few experts believe this is a successful long-term strategy. Alternatives such as strengthening police and social services, reforming prisons and creating jobs cost time and money. Ecuador has little of both.

Economic problems

In the South American country, roads and infrastructure, which were once envy in the region, now they begin to deteriorate. “It is very likely that the economy has contracted last year,” says economist Alberto Acosta Burneo. The analyst attributes part of the blame to the blackouts that occurred throughout 2024, caused by a drought that affected the hydroelectric generation and led to the closing of companies.

However, experts also point to the lack of investment. After more than a decade of spending without oil boom revenue that once filled the state coffers, public debt is now around 57% of GDP, according to the IMF. Noboa was recently to the IMF to request a financial salvation board. But new cuts are likely as the country is still having difficulty obtaining cheap loans in fixed income markets due to the scarcity of reserves and more than a dozen recent defaults.

The security situation aggravated the country’s economic problems, driving away visitors and investors. “There are no tourists, no customers,” says Maria Delfina Toaquiza, a 58 -year -old indigenous artisan with a hill in a hill overlooking the historic center of Quito. To the latter, the harsh military offensive of Noboa to combat the drug problem also damaged the country’s image.

“He goes out with bulletproof vest and helmet, declares a state of exception, closed his borders during elections for a potential problem that may arise. And when it makes such harsh statements (…), it nullifies any possibility of investment, ”he says.

*With information from AFP
Posted by Victor Oliveira