The future of Venezuela will be determined by American political leaders and the pressure groups operating in Washington. Although Donald Trump has not yet formulated his policy with respect to Venezuela, the many important US interests at play will force him to define his objectives. The vast oil reserves of Venezuela, the accelerated ancestry of drug trafficking and organized crime, the brutal attack against democracy and human rights (which has resulted in strong US sanctions), the historical exodus of millions of Venezuelans, and are some of The challenges that Trump and his team must face.
In Trump’s White House and in its widest orbit, there are three different points of view on how the United States should be related to Venezuela. A group, considers that the restoration of democracy is the main political objective of the United States in Venezuela.
Another perspective, pragmatism, is represented by Richard Grenell. This presidential envoy for special missions, was appointed by Trump to attend some of the “most hot points” in the world, such as Venezuela and North Korea.
A more belligerent vision, defended by various informal groups and influential individuals, supports military action against Venezuela. Two former presidents of Colombia, Álvaro Uribe and Iván Duque, have recently defended this idea.
Rubio, represents the hard line with respect to negotiating with dictatorial regimes. In 2016, the now Secretary of State competed in the primary elections of the Republican Party, in which he was one of the applicants defeated by Donald Trump. Since then, Rubio has accumulated great experience in international politics. For almost two decades he led the Senate’s Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committees. Perhaps the most important thing is that, he has dedicated a lot of attention to Latin America, to his problems and his leaders.
At his confirmation hearing in the Senate, Rubio maintained that the United States must rethink its focus on the regime of Nicolás Maduro, which does not consider a government, but “a drug trafficking organization that has appropriated a state-state.” Rubio lashed out at Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden: “I was in total disagreement with the Biden administration because they let themselves be manipulated in the way I knew they would do it.” Maduro systematically breached the promises he made during the negotiations with the US. In addition, Rubio added, and other oil companies to operate in Venezuela, which are “contributing billions of dollars” to “the coffers of the regime.”
A more pragmatic position is that of Grenelll, who served as US ambassador to Germany during Trump’s first mandate (2018-2020) and, he acted briefly, as an interim director of National Intelligence in 2020. In January 2025, Grenell wrote In X: “Diplomacy has returned. Today I talked to several officials in Venezuela and I will start meetings tomorrow morning early. Talking is a tactic. ” Recently, he flew to Caracas, where he met with Maduro and obtained the release of six American detainees. Meanwhile, Mauricio Claver-Carone, a presidential sent from Trump for Latin America, insisted that there was not “what is the place where… It is not a negotiation in exchange for anything. ”
The third option is military intervention. Although none of the high positions of Trump’s cabinet publicly supports this idea, it continues to circulate in political circles. Those who propose this idea maintain that, in view of the fact that all peaceful means have been exhausted, there is no more alternative than to overthrow Maduro and their accomplices by force. This idea has not achieved more support.
It is unlikely that the Trump administration acts militarily against the Maduro regime. During the electoral campaign and now as president, Trump has repeatedly promised “not to new wars.” As he said in his inaugural speech: “We will measure our success not only for the battles that we win, but also for the wars that we end, and perhaps the most important thing, the wars in which we will never get involved. The legacy of which I will be more proud will be that of Pacifier and Unifier ”.
But Trump’s promises and statements leave the door open for the United States to use the cyber, commercial, financial, diplomatic and military tools at their disposal. Officials should learn from the abject faults of the Biden administration with respect to Venezuela. For example, they were poorly designed and worse executed by bureaucrats with minimal access to power centers. Other countries played a small, and rather symbolic role, in these efforts.
As for what opinion will prevail, I suspect that we will see a mixture of the three. Inevitably, there will be tension among those who advocate leaving Maduro in power while negotiating with him, and who, on the other hand, consider that their dismissal is a non -negotiable requirement. In any case, it seems reasonable to expect a wave of intense and confusing diplomatic activity, of the use of lobbying by business interests and many decisions that will surprise us.
