With fear of violence, Ecuador goes to the polls with a closed border

Ecuador holds this Sunday (9.FEV.2025) presidential and legislative elections. The 137 seats of the National Assembly will be renewed. The current president, Daniel Noboa (national democratic action, center-right), seeks reelection. If necessary, there will be 2nd shift on April 13.

With fear of violence, the country goes to the polls with the border closed. Last Tuesday (4.FEV), noboa In his X (former Twitter) profile that the decision is in response to the alleged threats from armed groups.

“I ordered the security block to perform the following actions: militarize ports immediately and strengthen military presence at the north and southern borders of the country. In response to attempts by groups armed to destabilize the country ”, stated. A mEdida comes into force this Saturday (8.FEV) and runs until Monday (10.FEV).

Ecuador goes through Since the departure of former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017) for corruption cases.

The crisis in the country is based on 3 main elements:

• drug trafficking;
• Political violence;
• Prison System.

Covid-19 pandemic has deteriorated the economy and made room for drug traffickers turn the country into a crucial route to Europe and the United States. Ecuador turned Mexican locations and cartels, especially Los Lobos, which brings together about 8,000 members.

Homicides have increased by 430% from 2019 to 2024, totaling 3,036 cases. Even with a fall compared to 2023, the number is still higher than 2022. In addition, the Country recorded more than 2,000 kidnappings and 10,700 extortions. One in Ecuadorians claims to have been the victim of some crime, o Human Rights Watch.

In the 2023 buffer elections, when power, at least 5 politicians were murdered, including can. On August 9, 2023, the presidential candidate was shot 3 times as he left a rally.

The Los Lobos group was considered the perpetrator, but investigations by the Ecuadorian police showed that the video in which the group allegedly claimed the responsibility was false.

Also according to the Human Rights Watch, the lack of state control, overcrowding and bad conditions “Allow organized crime to control arrests”.

Temporary mandate

This Sunday’s election (9.Jan) will be the 1st within the regular electoral cycle since the early election of 2023 by former President Guillermo Lasso (2021-2023).

At the time, Noboa won with 52.2% of the valid votes and assumed a temporary term of 1 and a half years. Since then, it has implemented a more rigorous management in the fight against crime.

In its almost 15 months in office, The Insight Crime platform, which specializes in organized crime in Latin America, authorities arrested more than 60,000 suspects for crimes by 2024 and seized 280 tons of illicit drugs, an increase of 29% compared to 2023.

In July 2024, Noboa visited Durán, a coastal city considered the most violent in the country. Wearing bulletproof vest and military helmet, criticized his rivals for not visiting the region.

Still according to Insight Crime, violence temporarily decreased in Durán after sending military and police. But it grew again, recording 476 homicides in 2024.

In the prison issue, the army took control of the main units and carried out operations to combat gangs. Noboa too The construction of new prisons, but did not face structural problems such as endemic corruption, inadequate punitive policies and criminal activities within prisons.

Vitelio Brustolin, Professor of International Relations at UFF (Fluminense Federal University) and Harvard researcher, It evaluates that there have been advances since Noboa took over in 2023. “The point is that this advance is shy”said in an interview with Poder360.

“The current government, with only 15 months in office, faced a difficult structural problem to solve in such a short time”he said. For Brustolin, a significant change would require drastic measures, such as a cooperation agreement with the United States, similar to that held in Colombia.

“However, not even these methods have complete solutions and the Ecuadorian government has been asked to negotiate with criminal factions to stay in power.”he said.

This narrative “Hard Line” It seems to favor noboa in the 2025 elections, confirming the main elections in the world this year.

According to Ipsos research On January 29, noboa leads with 50%of the intentions of valid votes, followed by Luisa González (34.6%), Andrea González (5.7%) and Leonidas Iza (2.6%). The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points. To be elected in the first round, Noboa needs 50% plus 1 of the valid votes or 40% with an advantage of at least 1 pp over the 2nd place. The mandate is 4 years.

For Brustolin, Noboa’s favoritism is due to its ability to govern by avoiding direct confrontations with criminal factions. “He [também] with highlights for its popularity, youth and charisma, besides not facing great complaints [de corrupção] like former President Rafael Correa. In this scenario, the other candidates do not have the same expressiveness or proposals capable of challenging it effectively ”concluded.

In addition to the maximum position of the federal executive, the 137 chairs of the National Assembly – unique chairs of the Ecuadorian legislature are also at stake in the elections. The mandates of the deputies also last 4 years.

From the trump wannabe

DANIEL ROY-GILCHRIST NOBOA AZIN, 35, is the youngest president in the history of Ecuador. Is the son of the tycoon Álvaro Noboa, owner of one of the main banana exporters in the country.

At 18, he founded his own company, DNA Entertainment Group. In 2010, he began working at his father’s company, which also played the Ecuadorian presidency in 2006.

Daniel Noboa’s political career began in 2021 when he was elected to the National Assembly. In the Legislature, he was chairman of the Commission for Economic, Productive and Microenterprise Development.

Your Its main focus is the reform of Ecuador’s prison and judicial system. He advocates the formation of police officers in peaceful conflict resolution techniques and the development of prisoners rehabilitation programs to reduce recurrence rates.

Noboa also proposes to accelerate judicial proceedings for the right to a quick and fair judgment. It also advocates the revision of pre -trial detention policies and improved training of prison employees. Here of the Government Plan (2025-2029) by Daniel Noboa (PDF-660 KB, in Spanish).

During his mandate buffer, noboa adopted policies aimed at free trade promotion initiatives and bilateral treaties, and seeks to reinforce existing partnerships, given that the country’s economy depends on exports. However, Noboa adopted an attitude more linked to US President Donald Trump (Republican) – which follows a more protectionist line – to February 4.

To the Poder360FAAP (Armando Álvares Penteado Foundation) International Relations Professor Matheus de Oliveira assesses that Noboa’s measure makes no sense and attitude can be seen as an nod to the US President.

“Trump does this because the US economy is very powerful. [Mas] the situation [do Equador] It is completely different. This increase in taxes will have a residual impact on the Mexican economy ”says.

Both Oliveira and Brustolin evaluate that, unlike the relationship between Mexico and the US, the current Ecuadorian president does not have the force of the US leader to impact the country’s economy. In addition, diplomatic relations between Ecuador and Mexico have been shaken since 2024, when he naboes to arrest an Ecuadorian former president.

Luisa González, opposition to the left

Luisa González, 45, is the main candidate of the opposition. He was born in Quito and has a degree in law from the International University of Ecuador. In 2008, he worked as advisor to the Secretariat of Communication and Information of the Presidency of Ecuador. Two years later, he assumed the position of general coordinator of the presidential strategic agenda.

From 2011 to 2018, he held different positions, as deputy consul of Ecuador in Madrid, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Tourism, Secretary General of the Presidential Office, National Secretary of Public Administration and Minister of Labor. After the government of Correa, González was appointed national secretary of the Andean Parliament.

The lawyer was elected to the National Assembly in the 2021 legislative elections. By the Unión Coalition by La Esperanza, she was chosen to represent the province of Manabí. He performed the function until May 17, 2023, when Lasso summoned the early elections.

This post was co -produced by the Nathallie Lopes journalism intern under the supervision of the editor Ighor Nóbrega.