Bank pointed out that although rates on Canada and Mexico were postponed, the US applied 10% on Chinese imports
JPMorgan analysts predict new tariff actions or tariff threats in the coming months after recent US President Donald Trump’s recent trade measures.
The bank pointed out that although tariffs over Canada and Mexico were temporarily postponed, the government went on with a 10% tariff over Chinese imports, stressing that commercial tensions follow as an important risk to markets.
“The postponement of tariffs to Canada and Mexico seems likely”Wrote JPMorgan, adding, however, that the suspension should not be permanent.
Meanwhile, the 10% rate on Chinese products “It should not be the final chapter of this story”. The bank foresees additional increases until the third quarter. The report on commercial practices, scheduled for April 1, can serve as a trigger for more severe tariff actions, warned JPMorgan.
On Sunday, Trump said he will announce reciprocal tariffs this week and imposed a generalized 25% tribute on steel and aluminum imports.
Uncertainty about trade policy can negatively impact US economic growth, according to JPMorgan. However, the bank has not yet revised its growth projection to 2025.
“The economy enters this period of commercial uncertainty in a solid position, and the final outcome of some of these tariffs is still uncertain”, Said the institution. Nevertheless, JPMorgan warned that uncertainty itself can influence corporate investment decisions, representing a risk to capital spending.
In the broader macroeconomic scenario, US labor market remains strong. In January, job creation reached 143,000 vacancies, while the unemployment rate fell to 4%, the lowest since May 2024. Salary growth also accelerated, with average gain per hour rising 0.5% in the month.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan follows the inflation and retail sales data next week, projecting a 0.2% increase in the IPC core. Although climatic factors may have distorted employment data, the bank believes that the federal reserve will keep its monetary policy unchanged for now, given the resilience of the economy.
With information from.
