The atlasintel survey, released on Tuesday (11), points out that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the 2026 presidential race in all scenarios, except against the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) .
In a possible second round between the two, Lula and Tarcisio appear technically tied: 45.7% for the petista and 44.7% for the governor.
The research also simulated scenarios for the first round. In one of them, Lula would beat Tarcisio with 41.1% of voting intentions, against 26.2% of the governor. Other names, such as Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), with 5.9%, and singer Gusttavo Lima, with 5.6%, appear as smaller options.
The survey still simulated a possible dispute with Jair Bolsonaro (PL), despite the ineligibility of the former president. In this dispute, the petista would win 44% to 40.6%. Simone Tebet (MDB) appears with 4.9%, followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 4.5%.
Despite a drop in rates, which reached 45.9% in January, the petista maintains an advantage in the simulations. Lula’s disapproval reached 51.4%, with 42% evaluating his government positively.
Compared to the government of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula is considered better for 48.5% of respondents, against 45.8% who evaluate the previous government positively. They considered that the governments Lula and Bolsonaro were “equal” 5.7% of voters.
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The atlasintel heard 3,125 Brazilian voters between January 27 and 31. The margin of error is two percentage points for more or less.
