The question is no longer whether Vladimir Putin will attack another European country after the war in Ukraine, but when he will. This is supported by Keir Giles, an expert in European defense and Russia in Chatham House, who warns that the Russian threat on Europe is imminent. In an interview with Giles has assured that “the clock is already underway” and that Moscow could be preparing an offensive against an NATO country.
The British researcher, author of the book Who Will Defend Europe? An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continenthe argues that Russia is in a position of force despite military wear in Ukraine. According to him, the Russian military capacity not only remains intact on many fronts, but has even increased in key sectors such as Navy, aviation and nuclear forces. Meanwhile, several NATO countries have weakened their own defense after prolonged support to Ukraine without replenishing their arsenals.
Putin’s strategy, according to Giles, goes through attacking NATO from within, undermining the will of its members to respond to an aggression. To do this, Russia could resort to limited but highly symbolic attacks, such as sabotage, caused fires or cyber attacks in key countries such as Germany, France or the United Kingdom. In addition, misinformation and pressure on Western public opinion could play a crucial role in the Russian strategy to stop a coordinated response of the Atlantic Alliance.
The possibility of a direct attack on a NATO member country generates considerable uncertainty. Article 5 of the Treaty establishes that an attack against a member is an attack against all, but Giles wonders if European governments would be willing to mobilize in a context of reluctant populations to an open war with Russia. The lack of preparation of many countries for a conflict of this magnitude, together with the growing influence of internal policy on defense decisions, could give Moscow the advantage it needs.
The scenario that Giles draws reminds the years prior to World War II: an expansionist power challenging the established order, while Western democracies hesitate when reacting. The big difference, according to the expert, is that today Europe has not carried out a large -scale rearma , especially given the possibility of a new mandate of Donald Trump, adds a layer of uncertainty to the situation.
The Russian strategy is not limited to a conventional attack. Giles warns that in the coming months a campaign of sabotages and attacks in European cities could be intensified. Some of these attacks have already happened, such as fires in warsaw centers or sabotages of key infrastructure both in Germany and in the Czech Republic. The interruption of GPS signals in the Baltic or the Great North could be another tool to sow chaos before an open offensive.
Giles also criticizes the lack of political reaction in many European countries, where the warnings of defense experts have not been translated into concrete decisions. He ensures that the Russian threat is real and that the only way to deter Vladimir Putin is demonstrating a superior military capacity and the will to use it if necessary. According to the expert, history shows that Kremlin only respects strength, and any attempt to appease will only give Russia more margin to expand its influence.
While European governments discuss how to face the situation, in Moscow time plays in favor of Putin. The war in Ukraine has been only the first act of a major strategy, and if Europe does not react in time, it could be too late.
