The friendship, almost familiar, of the boss with the most powerful man in the world can be a no less fact for the interests of a company. Especially if the latter is called Donald Trump and neither avoid rewarding faithfulness with personal favors nor does the possible conflicts of interest take into account. However, when the spotlights go out and the electoral confetti stops floating, investors seek certainties where almost always: in the results account and their future expectations. That is being the greatest weakness of Tesla, the weakest link of the Magnificent seven, and now
The electric car manufacturer has been forgetting for two months. Since its maximum of December 17, the action has lost 31.5% of its value, while the S&P 500 and the Technological Nasdaq remain practically flat in that period. That tendency to move below the market, which has already placed it in red numbers in what we have been in 2025, has accelerated after the presentation of mediocre results at the end of January. Total income grew in the fourth quarter by 2%, but remained slightly positively only thanks to the storage and energy generation business, while those from their vehicles fell 8%, something that the company attributed to its sales of Prices in their Model 3, Model and, Model S and Model X cars.
It is difficult to find a metric that improves. In the last three months the benefit before interest and taxes (EBIT) was 1,580 million, compared to the consensus of 2,700 million, and the net margin of 6.2%, below the expected 9.9%. The benefits fell 53% in the set of 2024, to 7,091 million dollars. That is causing an abrupt, already decline, readjustment of expectations. The forecast of benefits by 2025, according to the consensus of analysts compiled by Bloomberg, has been reduced by 30%: of the 14,725 million planned 12 months ago, at the current 10,242 million, and those of income, 14%: of the 132,800 million at 113,468 million that now discounts the market.
The recalculation arrives with Tesla quoting in the stock market to some multiples far superior to those of its direct competitors: the action lies 120 times the benefits planned by 2025, compared to nine times from Toyota, the six of Ford and the four of Volkswagen. That means that the market still buys the story that its growth potential is much greater, but at the same time, that demanding valuation, more typical of a start-up That from a mature company, it exposes it to much more pronounced falls if it breaches the forecasts or obstacles appear on the road.
The results were far from being spectacular, rather, but they were enough to prolong their stock market rally thanks to Elon Musk’s ability to sell the future, with a 2026 “epic” 2026, and about 2027 and 2028 “ridiculously Good ”, in his words. In that promising future that Musk drew will have a new line of business. He announced that this June will begin to prove in Austin (Texas), where there is no regulation that prevents it, and that it will extend to many regions of the country at the end of the year, to be fully operational throughout the country in 2026.
While waiting to see the revenues of that bet, investors have paid attention to other data. Tesla sales in Europe in January have collapsed, with setbacks of 59% in Germany, 63% in France, 75% in Spain, 44% in Sweden and 38% in Norway. The most striking thing is that the sinking has also occurred in a context of growth of the electric vehicle market, which amplifies bad news, as it implies a clear loss of market share for Tesla. In Germany, where it has its only European factory, it has gone from 14% to 4%.
The reasons for this debacle are not clear. There are analysts who explain it for the launch of the new model and, scheduled for this first half of the year. According to that argument, many customers would be delaying the purchase of their Tesla until its appearance, instead of opting for the models in the market. It is hard to believe, however, that this is the only reason. And others point to the reputational damage that the growing political activism of Elon Musk, his mandamás and visible face is assuming to Tesla.
His support for Trump has brows the direction of the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), but as expected, the tycoon born in South Africa has not limited himself to exercising that work quietly, and his political implication has been winning Dimension week by week. The turning point marked it in the German elections of February 23, an interview included in its leader.
That greater political participation, even beyond the US borders, is promoting a strong polarization around his figure. Musk still has an important mass of followers, but the rejection that awakens grows. And if on social networks that translates into the jump of millions of users from X to Bluesky to avoid fattening the figures of a company of its property,
In green from Trump’s victory
Despite recent poor evolution, Tesla’s price still gains more than 30%. It is good news for those who invested before that moment, but not so good for those who have joined the wave later, since the Trump effect threatens to continue falling apart if the division of autonomous cars does not satisfy expectations.
The automobile industry will not be immune to the impact of the commercial policy of the Republican, which has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel, already China, where Tesla sales fell 11.5% in January compared to the previous year. In the Asian giant also faces the hard competition of Byd, which unlike Tesla, moves in favor of the current and in the first month of the year its cars sold by 47.5%, including hybrids and electric.
According to an analysis by Rico Luman, an Ing economist specialized in transport, Trump’s tariffs could have a “tremendous” impact on the automotive sector. “The United States sells many more new vehicles than it produces and car supply chains are among the most integrated internationally. Therefore, import taxes will quickly lead to higher costs and pressure on prices. ”
Elon Musk does not seem worried, and does not cease his efforts to open new fronts. Directing a company like Tesla, the eighth of the world for stock market capitalization, could already be considered by themselves a full -time work. Musk is not enough. To his new work as a public employee under Trump’s orders, and his obligations in his other companies (XAI, X.com, Neuralink, Spacex and The Boring Company, among others), the owner of Chatgpt, to her archnesigo Sam Altman .
