Hong Kong (CNN) – At a time when the war in Ukraine walks to his fourth year, US President Donald Trump made it clear which world leader considers to help America to end the conflict: Xi Jinping, ally of Vladimir Putin.
“Hopefully China can help us end the war, in particular, between Russia and Ukraine … They have a great power over this situation and we will work with them,” Trump told the political and business elites gathered At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month.
Trump expressed this hope, as he has repeatedly said, in a call with Chinese leader days before his inauguration last month – and it is a subject that can be addressed in the coming days, when authorities around the world meet in Munich for an annual security conference.
Although Trump may have complicated his plan to orchestrate peace alongside Xi, imposing a 10% overall fare on Chinese imports on the United States earlier this month, war in Ukraine may be a rare issue of collaboration – especially When Beijing seeks to avoid deepening commercial tensions.
“Given what is at stake in relations between the US and China, if Trump consider cooperation with China as the only critical issue that can improve relationships between the US and China, I think China will be very tempted (. ..) (and may) play a useful role, ”said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Study Center in Washington. At the same time, he added, Beijing will be afraid to harm his alignment with Russia.
China has long been to position itself as a potential mediator of peace in conflict – promoting its own proposal to resolve the war, formulated vaguely. But in the West, his proposal has so far been overshadowed by another reality: Beijing’s permanent support to Putin Russia.
For Xi, it would be very risky to harm this partnership, which the Chinese leader built as a fundamental part of his widest goals to counteract the pressure of the West and reshape the world order in favor of China.
And a negotiating table in which Xi has a prominent place is also a table in which Putin, not Trump, has a convinced partner – a reality that Washington would have to navigate carefully if he does not want to risk isolate the European allies or reach a Solution that is unacceptable to Ukraine, analysts say.
“The real result that Beijing would like to avoid is a very weakened Russia,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore. “Because in this case (…) Beijing would be missing an important partner.”
A Ukrainian military of the 24th Mechanized Brigade trains in the Donetsk region of Ukraine at the beginning of last year. Evgeniy Maloletka/Ap
An end in sight?
The future of the conflict is expected to occupy a prominent place on the Munich Security Conference agenda, which will start on Friday in Germany, where US Vice President JD Vance should meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also lead a Beijing delegation.
The meeting will be marked by a tone change in Washington’s approach to war. Trump questioned American aid to the country at war that his predecessor Joe Biden and Nato’s allies considered it fundamental to defend not only Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also the worldwide order -based order.
In an interview with Fox News earlier this week, the notoriously transactional Trump suggested, on the contrary, that the US should have access to Ukraine’s rich natural resources in exchange for military assistance. He also suggested that Ukraine “may be Russian one day” and said that its administration has made “tremendous progress” in the preparation of the foundations for potential peace conversations with Russia and Ukraine, without providing details.
Members of the Trump Administration should meet with the Ukrainian authorities in the coming days, with sources to tell CNN that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent should move to Kiev to discuss the country’s critical mineral deposits. Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is also expected to visit the country after meetings in Munich.
Zelensky said he was willing to negotiate with Putin – but only if the US and Europe continues to support Ukraine and “provide security guarantees,” while Russia reiterated in recent days that it would only accept a peace that saw Ukraine give up the ambitions of join the NATO and assign regions attached by Russia.
But while Trump is insisting on a quick end to war, his administration has not yet specifically defined what kind of peace terms hopes to see agreed.
Trump’s desire to work alongside Xi – and the availability of the Chinese leader – may also depend to some extent these parameters, the observers say. In the past, Western leaders have unsuccessfully tried to persuade Xi to push Putin to a peace similar to that defended by Zelensky and Ukraine.
Although China has claimed neutrality in conflict and appealed to peace, it has emerged as a fundamental diplomatic and economic life line for Russia during the war, namely by sending double -use goods that, according to NATO leaders , they are feeding the Russian defense sector and enabling their armed forces. Beijing defends his trade as part of normal relations with Russia.
It is likely that, in Trump’s eyes, all this gives an advantage over Putin. But the closest observers in Chinese foreign policy say it’s not that simple.
“Can China threaten to cut off the supply (from Russian essential goods)? It cannot, because China cannot afford to have a completely failed Russia, ”said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor of Chinese politics at Hong Kong University. Liu Dongshu said that Beijing estimates that their relations with the US and Europe have already deteriorated in such a way that there is no choice but to continue supporting their only powerful diplomatic ally.
Xi and Putin memorably declared their “boundless” partnership weeks before the Russian tanks invaded Ukraine’s sovereign borders – a promise based on their common opposition to the NATO and the opinion that the US -led West is declining. while they are on the rise.
Xi also sees Putin as a potential source of economic and diplomatic support if he will ever invade Taiwan, according to some observers. Xi’s ambition to assume the control of autonomous democracy may be another of the main reasons that lead him to distrust any measure that could harm this relationship.
The Chinese leader may also be enjoying the role of war as a distraction to the United States, which do not focus on Asia and Taiwan – something that Trump’s co -religionists, including Vice President Vance, pointed out.
As a US senator, Vance argued last year that the US providing Air defense systems to Ukraine could undermine his ability to help Taiwan’s defense if China attacked the island that claims it as his own.
Xi as a peacemaker?
Work with Trump to press Putin to sit at the negotiation table – whatever the terms of an agreement – would also mark a radical change in Beijing’s approach to the conflict to date.
XI and its employees used war as a platform to promote a view of a world led by China, a world in which the American alliance system was dismantled or weakened.
“China focuses on building a coalition of non-western nations, including influential developing countries such as Brazil, to leverage conflict in Ukraine to reshape global security architecture and promote an alternative view of the world order,” explained Tong Zhao, senior member of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US.
Beijing will have few incentives to get involved in substantial cooperation with Washington for now, Zhao said, noting that his employees would, however, wait to see what benefits could be obtained with any potential more Trump agreement.
That said, the current US president – a NATO critic, who has repeatedly expressed his personal admiration for Putin and Xi – can be a more appealing negotiation partner for both strong men.
Before taking office, Trump appealed to an “immediate ceasefire and negotiations” – a position that coincides with Beijing’s stated position on the War, which has been criticized by the West as being useful to Russia. In recent weeks, he also echoed the views of Moscow and Beijing, sympathizing with Kremlin’s opinion that Ukraine should not be part of the NATO and that the war continued because the United States “began to dump equipment” in Ukraine.
US legislators and some members of Trump administration continue to be hard with both countries. But Trump’s position raises the question of whether there is an agreement between Beijing, Moscow and Washington that can please the three – and what it can mean to Ukraine and the future of conflict.
“Putin can save the face, Xi and Trump can say they are peacemakers,” said Robert Ward, director of geoeconomics and strategy at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Britain.
But there is a risk of any agreement where Russia is in possession of the parts of Ukraine that is occupying becoming “a conflict that is not at the end, it is just a truce,” he added.
Mariya Knight, Maria Kostenko, Frederik Pleitgen, Katharina Krebs and Caitlin Danaher, from CNN, contributed to this report.
