Billionaire contribution in IA by Big Techs leaves assessment of actions “in the dark”

The decision to invest (or not) in an action goes through several factors, such as paper price, company management reputation, economic conjuncture and company growth in the short term. Financial market professionals agree that it is not easy to design the future of a company, but a group of companies has been further challenging analysts.

United States technology giants, the so -called “big techs”They are investing heavily in artificial intelligence and playing the stock market players to discuss whether they will be able to get satisfactory in the long run with technological disruption.

Until time shows all the answers, some prefer to pay to see and also those who choose to mitigate risks.

“It has always been very difficult to do Big Techs valuation because we are counting on a future appreciation of a technology that we don’t even know yet. But with investments of this size, the task becomes even more challenging, ”explains Plínio Zanini, director of risk at Ciano Investimentos.

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R $ 1.84 trillion in 2025

When reporting last year’s fourth quarter balance sheets, Amazon (), Microsoft (), Alphabet (Google’s owner) and Meta () – Apple () has been more shy in spending – announced AI investments that add up to US $ 320 billion only in 2025.

The figure has only been growing over the years: it was $ 151 billion in 2023 (less than half of what will be spent this year) and $ 246 billion in 2024.

The amount announced for this year is equivalent to about R $ 1.84 trillion. Today, Petrobras (), Vale () and Itaú () Vale, together, R $ 1.07 trillion.

Big Techs are building data centers in an effort to develop large -scale artificial intelligence language models and infrastructure construction to support increasing volumes of cloud -stored data.

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For Maria Irene Jordão, an analyst at XP, the growth of CAPEX (amount invested in capital goods, such as data centers) “is justifiable, considering the importance of this technological race for companies, which want to maintain themselves as dominant in the technology sector ”.

Intensive capital in the technology sector?

In theory, the higher the proportion of immobilized capital in relation to the company’s profit, the lower the multiples, recalls José Cassiolato, partner of RGW Investimentos. But the practice is different: the price/profit (p/l) of Amazon It shows that the company’s stock price is 42 times higher than accumulated profits in the last 12 months. Microsoft OP/L is 33x, while the Meta It is 30x and the smallest is that of Alphabet: 23x.

In a rapid reading, high P/L indicates that the market expects strong growth in the future, but it can also mean that an action is expensive. The problem, according to Cassiolato, is that “it is still too early to give a verdict” about the capital structure of these companies.

Technology companies have always contrast with intensive capital companies that need large investments to generate revenue. By working with innovation, few employees, cheaper structures (offices instead of large plants) and without large machines that demand investment and maintenance, it is normal for multiples in the sector to be high. However, strong investments begin to ask doubts from this perspective.

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Projections “in the dark”

But assessing whether it is worth investing in these companies is not as simple as looking at the multiple stretches and concluding that the actions are expensive. The market still does not know what will be the return of billionaire investments. “Designing the future of this Capex is extremely difficult because companies are dealing with fast -pace innovation and it is not yet known what future applications,” says Jordão, from XP.

Infrastructure investment usually takes three to five years to generate return, says Rennan Guimarães, partner and CTO of Gravus Capital: “During this period, evaluations (on the price of big techs) can be in the dark.”

Market agents are aware of each innovation of technology giants. There are disruptions that can revolutionize the industry forever – as it solves in five minutes that supercomputer problems would solve in about 10 septilions of years to calculate – but strong positioning in cloud computing, which already generates revenues today, is a differential Competitive, according to José Maria da Silva, Avenue allocation and intelligence coordinator.

“If the demand for new language models increase significantly, more servers, greater computing capacity and Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft dominate this market,” says Silva. For him, “Cloud players will be the big winners” of the technology race, as there is still difficulty understanding how the new language models will be monetized.

Deepseek and the Chinese threat

If signs of hope exist, the concern are also appearing. The most recent was the launch of Chinese AI assistant Deepseek, praised for developing a technology that hits Silicon Valley even with much smaller investment. The technology index Nasdaq fell 3% in.

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Soon after, it was Alibaba’s turn () promising better results than Chinese competitor and OpenAi and Meta solutions. If the DeepSek model proves replicable, “it can challenge the logic of spending billions and pressing the margins of the big techs,” says Guimarães of Gravus Capital.

For RGW’s Cassiolato, the Chinese technology “brings a more ‘commodized’ thesis, reducing API costs and disappointing the expectations of gain with Capex performed by these (American) companies.”

While the market tries to get out of the dark in the projection of the return of billionaire investments in the coming years, “volatility will exist,” warns Guimarães. Investors are concerned about the high spending, players competition that were went to the radar and unpredictability of the returns, says the expert.

Are the big techs expensive?

With all the difficulty of the market in evaluating the technology giants of the United States, it is no surprise that the experts heard by the Infomoney They did not label actions as guys. Analyzes show that there are many risks associated with technology roles, but long -term awards can compensate for current uncertainty.

“It’s hard to say that they are not expensive using traditional valuation methods, they will need to deliver very strong results to justify today’s multiples,” argues Plínio Zanini. But the director of Ciano Investimentos adds that “you can’t say that very strong growth will not happen, they (the big techs) can bring great innovations that would give the expected return.”

XP has a “cautious vision” about technology actions because of “very high multiples and regulatory risks under a Trump administration,” says Maria Irene Jordão. The house recommends decreasing the exposure to the American scholarship because technology companies raised the multiples of S&P 500 e Nasdaq 100which threatens the performance of other dearest sectors there, but Microsoft’s roles are in the global action portfolio.

At RGW Investimentos, the conclusion is that the actions are not expensive, as companies are at the head of a process of transforming society, but the Chinese competition showed that IA profits will not only go to the great Americans, which “ Put on these companies, ”explains José Cassiolato. Therefore, the office indicates to expose itself by AI by sectors that will capture the increased productivity generated by technology, such as health and biotechnology.