BTG Pactual analysts estimate that a decision allowing Petrobras to advance with preliminary studies for oil exploration at the Amazon River mouth in Amapá can be taken in the coming months, but assess that such unfolding should not have an immediate effect on state actions.
They argue the flow of news around the equatorial margin intensified in recent weeks, with political pressure increasing to carry out exploratory activities that could unlock significant investments and economic growth in the region.
“The involvement of key government figures, including President Lula, signals a stronger boost to resolve the impasse of licensing, particularly because the political leadership of states such as Amapá continues to defend the project,” they said in a report sent to clients. This Thursday (13).
On the day before, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that a meeting between Casa Civil and Ibama this week or next should bring a definition on the subject, adding that the environmental inspection and licensing body cannot seem like an entity contrary to the government.
“Maybe next week or this week there will still be a meeting of the Civil House with Ibama and we need to authorize that Petrobras do research, that’s what we want. Then if we will explore it is another discussion. What is not happening is that we stay in this lenga-lenga, ”said Lula.
BTG analysts, however, point out that while ensuring license is an important milestone for Petrobras, it is not an immediate driver for the company’s actions.
“Any commercial development in the region would take years and require substantial investments, which means that, for now, the company’s evaluation remains more closely linked to its existing capital production and allocation strategies,” said Luiz Carvalho and Team.
Petrobras is currently awaiting a return from IBAMA on a reconsideration request made by the company in 2023, after the agency had denied a drilling license in the area. Ibama does not have a deadline to respond.
