Three years were true that the timing of peace negotiations with the Russians would be determined by Kiev. This thesis assumed that the Allies would do everything possible to make the attacked country into interviews with the Russians with a strengthened position.
However, the new White House management, the rule that its predecessors set up, changed and Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he had agreed with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin that the American and Russian bargaining team was starting with immediate negotiations.
that Donald Trump’s peace plan to end the extensive Russian-Ukrainian war is not ready, because no one has consulted such a plan with Ukraine and no one has submitted to it concrete proposals.
Trump’s statements after a call with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called the second, immediately became the subject of Ukrainian discussions.
Is it a fight with China?
In this context, Ukrainian commentator Vitaly Portnik noticed some reactions from Europe, namely the status of former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who, after Trump’s statement, described a call with Putin, wrote that “even Chamberlain did not drop so low in 1938”.
“This is certainly an innovative approach to negotiations – making big concessions before it starts,” Bildt said on Wednesday.
Portnik, based on the information that is still on the air, came up with the conclusion that in Trump’s neighborhood probably the main violin is played by the group that claims that Ukraine needs to stop military assistance and agree with Russia to end the Russian-Ukrainian war even for the price even for the price Russians.
The daily writes that after promises to quickly end the war, it seems that the steps of the US administration on Wednesday undermined the influence of Ukraine on peace talks. In his material, for example, he cites British historian Timothy Ash, who sees newcomers in the Americans. “Why would you reveal your negotiating lever before the negotiations?” He asked in connection with the statements of US Minister Defense Peta Hegseth, who marked the return of the Ukrainian border before 2014 or the entry of Ukraine to NATO as unrealistic.
For example, Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Horbač thinks that the steps of the new American administration can be a competitive game against Beijing.
“Their logic is simple and primitive as Trump himself: If you want to win a global competition with China, you have to tear Russia and pull it to your side. That is why Trump is constantly boasting good relationships with Putin, ”he wrote.
First call to Moscow, then to Kiev
In the commentary for a change, journalist Oleh Pavľuk notes how the new American administration is changing the principles that the Americans set up in 2022, as far as their support for Ukraine.
The first was the rule that the timing of the beginning of peace negotiations with the Russians should determine Kiev. The second principle was a simple password – “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”.
But the situation changed and Pavľuk recalls that Donald Trump first phoned Vladimir Putin, with whom he spoke 90 minutes before he dialed the line to Kiev. He talked to the Greeding for an hour.
Many also suggests Donald Trump’s answer to the journalistic question he received in the White House, and whether he considers Ukraine an equal participant in the peace process. “I think they have to make peace. Their people are killed and I think they have to make peace, ”.
Kellog is replaced by Witkoff
Some commentators also notice that Trump did not mention the name of Keith Kellogg, a special US-Ukrainian warning, after the calls of Russia and Ukraine leaders, who is currently visiting Europe and should also meet Ukraine’s representatives.
Trump was retired for retired in the position of a negotiator in November, but that another person – American ambassador for the Middle East Steve Witkoff will be led by the US Party.
In the meantime, he has already made his way to Moscow, a prisoned American teacher Marc Fogel.
Witkoff’s contacts in the Middle East may be related to why the main negotiator has changed. Several Arab countries, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, act as intermediaries between Kiev and Moscow. In the past, they performed in the mediation of the return of deported Ukrainian children to their homeland or the exchange of prisoners of war.
In addition, Saudi Arabia appears to be the local meeting between the US and Russia. that he plans to meet the Russian ruler right there.
The Russians are pulling time
American military analyst Michael Kofman recalls that the negotiating positions of both sides of the war continue to determine the situation on the battlefield. According to him, the Russians are currently pulling time in terms of negotiations itself, because they think that war is evolving in their favor.
Kofman also reminds that “Being ready to negotiate and be ready to agree are two different things.” “For Russia, the image of the negotiations is important. Possibility to organize a meeting, summit, create the impression of a diplomatic process, ”says the analyst.
When the situation does not change, the negotiations will either not occur or lead to Russian ultimatum – the requirement of the Ukrainian surrender.
“Negotiations in which Ukraine would have a more favorable position are now impossible. I think that a minimum goal for Ukraine is to end the war for its acceptable conditions, ”he said, adding that Kiev should also focus on other negotiations – those between Ukraine and the West on security guarantees or support.
New war on the horizon?
The analyst pointed out that, although the ceasefire agreement is signed, it is not excluded that the Russians – this time already learned from mistakes – can launch a new wave of aggression in the future.
“The main thing in this situation is to understand that the freezing (war) on which Trump is pushing is a time before the second big Russian-Ukrainian war. This war will occur as soon as the Trump factor disappears (and the Putin factor does not disappear). If we accept it, then there will be no emotional fluctuations and burn -out. Our plan is to prepare for the next war, ”wrote Samus, Ukrainian analyst mychajlo.
Danish military intelligence service a few days ago that if Moscow perceived NATO as weakened, it could again use military power in Europe within five years. This time, Moscow’s goal can also be NATO countries.
According to the Danish, this may be particularly the case if the Kremlin assesses that the United States will no longer be willing to come to Europe to help.
