Price rise and greater uncertainty compared to hydroelectric plant reservoirs in 2024 linked a warning signal to commercial power traders. Risk management has become a matter of greater concern in the segment.
In the second half of last year, prices rose rapidly with the water crisis. Since hydroelectric reservoir levels are important to give safety to the electricity sector and the rains were not enough, the values practiced by the market remained high, when they were expected to fall from the rainy season.
The scenario generated tension in the market, especially with the news that the Gold Energia trading was at risk of default, that is, not being able to honor financial obligations.
At the time, Gold had to renegotiate contracts and avoid an adverse scenario, according to information from Brazil Journal and MegaWhat. The company has managed to rebalance the accounts and manage a potential crisis that could have effects throughout the sector.
In -depth management
As with the financial market, risk management is also analyzed in the Free Energy Market to predict scenarios and control the allocation of resources.
Continues after advertising
Traders use tools such as value at risk (VAR) To optimize investment strategies, but understanding of scenarios can be even more deepened by the use of other mechanisms.
Armor Energy Fred Menezes partner argues that other approaches can predict even more possibilities.
Continues after advertising
“I believe that stress test It is a concept that is still little debated and I don’t think it has as much use as it should. It is a superimportant mechanism for you to see if your position is safe in a truly stressed period, ”he says.
O stress test It opens a larger range of situations, such as crises, devaluation of assets and even geopolitical events. It is a tool that can evaluate the resilience of institutions and investment portfolios.
Mature analyzes
Because energy negotiation in the free market can suffer from sudden volatility, Menezes understands that traders need to mature the analyzes to protect themselves from problems.
Continues after advertising
Read more:
The Armor’s partner welcomes recent regulatory enhancements, such as the requirement of minimum equity for commercials operate in the market, the need for contributions to the Electricity Commercialization Chamber (CCEE) and the dissemination of the leverage factor.
Continues after advertising
Even so, the manager believes that it is possible to bring more advertising to the sector to give more security to the market.
“It is possible to think of some kind of proportionality, depending on how many average megawatts the company operates. In this case, it would be a warranty input proportional to the negotiated amount. This type of measure can be improved, but a priori, we are going in a direction of more transparency and better security for the market, ”he says.
For lawyer Bruna de Barros Correa, from BMA Advogados, the consumer who migrates to the free market needs to broadly understand the dynamics of negotiations and the risks involved.
Learn more:
In her view, it is necessary for the client to understand the differences in the practices of traders and distributors.
“In the regulated environment, the consumer has more security, but is stuck with that contract with that regulated tariff. The search to leave and be able to do this better optimization of the company’s costs and sustainability policies brings benefits, but it has risks, ”he says.
Resolution 1,081 of 2023 of the National Energy Agency (Aneel) allowed distributors to assume the operations of compliant customer who had been suspended in the Free Market.
Legislative changes
Since electricity needs to be provided, the consumer can choose to return to the regulated environment.
With the possibility of opening the market for low voltage consumers, the lawyer believes that a broad discussion will be needed in the context of regulation and legislative changes.
“This is one of the challenges of this modernization agenda of the electricity sector and the opening of the free market. You need to understand how these obligations are, both from the distributor of watching and the trader. To have all these changes, a structural change is also needed, which will involve regulation, legislation and distributors’ concession contracts, ”he says.
