Selic reaching 15%, high dollar and prices rising are factors that concern investors who lent money to non -financial companies via capital market. But some features help identify companies that may suffer even more from the macroeconomic scenario designed for the end of 2025. says Marcos Schmidt, director of Moody’s, in an interview with Infomoney.
According to a risk classification agency report, Real weak, Selic Alta and Inflation impose risks for the profitability of Brazilian companies, a factor that should generate more caution in private credit investors, as the scenario makes it difficult to comply with financial obligations. Throughout 2025. However, there are still several positive factors that should help companies cross the interest shock.
Challenging scenario
One of Moody’s highlights about the challenging credit scenario is the turn of interest expectations last year. The market started 2024 projecting Selic falling up to 9%, but the year ended against expectations, with a new monetary squeeze movement that has not yet ended. The shock between expectation and reality took companies that took on debts linked to the CDI by surprise, as they expected lower costs this year.
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For most companies under the coverage of the agency, the depreciation of Real has a limited impact on liquidity and leverage metrics, but exposure to debts linked to basic interest rates “is more difficult for companies to compensate,” says Moody’s.
Another point of concern is the profitability of Brazilian companies in 2025. With still weakened exchange and increasing expectations of inflation, consumer confidence fell at the end of last year, which puts doubts about the revenues of companies, as domestic consumption comes helping to support Brazil’s growth. Rise on interest also impacts consumer credit, which will have less resources to invest higher purchases this year.
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Who suffers more
Among the companies accompanied by Moody’s, one of the most affected must be Azul (), which has operating costs and dollar debts. According to the agency, the airline “runs the risk of having a double impact on its already tight liquidity.” Aviation has much of revenue in reais, but costs such as fuel and maintenance of aircraft are paid in dollars. Even so, “it is not possible to generalize and say that all in the industry are risky,” says Schmidt.
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Always present in the capital market, the Coruripe Sugar and Ethanol plant also has “high exposure” to dollar debts, especially for short -term working capital, and “average exposure” to local interest -linked debts.
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The report also cites Marfrig () -excluding BRF () -CSN () and OHI group for facing “more difficult operational performance” and presenting weaker credit metrics, despite low exposure to interest and exchange rates.
Raízen has a “relatively high risk as a result of a weakening of the real or higher rates, but still has a wide liquidity to support this period”.
They still make up the group of the most affected high leverage companies, such as real estate, public services and telecommunications, “because they usually depend on significant financing based on local debt to maintain their capital operations and spending.”
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Solutions
Despite a challenging scenario, companies still have tools to limit impacts. One of the alternatives, according to Schmidt, is to postpone investments and use the excess cash to pay the shorter debts. “When Capex decreases, it can increase cash generation to debt and balance sheets are still clean and favorable to face this crisis.”
Another factor of relief is that the exchange rate, although still devalued, has already improved compared to the closure of 2024. The dollar ended last year quoted at $ 6.18 and today is in the $ 5.76.
The capital market, and has appetite for investors who migrated to fixed income, should also function as an exhaust valve. The Moody’s report says the market “will continue to counterbalance the risks of assets, will stimulate the liquidity of large companies and maintain their default low.”
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By comparing with another challenging credit scenario in Brazil, in 2016, Schmidt says that today companies are better, the most stable country’s growth, the most favorable debt amortization profile and company management is better . Therefore, in the balance sheet for this year, the director of Moody’s says that “there are exceptions, but overall the credit foundation remains solid and robust to endure the shock of interest and exchange.”
