Instagram against Tiktok, OpenAi against, BYD against Tesla: the rivalry between technology companies United States and China It is no coincidence or just another normal competition between companies in the same sector. Clashes are part of an important context that must define the future of the global economy: the Technological War between Americans and Chinese.
A few years ago, the two global powers run to develop the most advanced resources and thus maintain or take the lead in the global economy. But who will win this war? And what are the impacts of the dispute on the global economy?
The dispute is called by some cold war 2.0 because of similarities to the US and Soviet Union in the second half of the last century: hostility without armed confrontation, different economic models and, of course, technology (war or not) as central theme.
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Like the tension that ended the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the dispute starring Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has the power to change the direction of the global economy.
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For Livio Ribeiro, associate researcher at FGV/IBI and partner of BRCG Consultoria, “we are in a process of defining how geopolitical actors will behave in the next 25 years.”
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“It is, in the end, a race for world sovereignty,” says Luis Otávio Leal, chief economist and partner of the G5 Partners. “Current technology, with artificial intelligence, can have several applications, including military, which will surely give advantage to those in the leading development in the dispute for power,” he adds.
Speaking about the dimension of the current dispute, Ribeiro argues that “this is the first time a country can fight with the United States,” as “Japan has been an economic threat, but it was a military ally and the Soviet Union. I had the atomic bomb, but it was never an economic threat. ”
Western X East
Experts explain that both sides have different strategies, each with competitive advantages and disadvantages. One of China’s strengths, according to Ribeiro, is well -defined strategic plans and the ability of the current regime to follow a script. Until 2049, the year of the Centenary of the Popular Republic of China, Xi Jinping wants the nation to “lead the world in terms of composed national force and influence”.
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On the other hand, China’s political organization creates in the country “a greater commitment to error” and strategic adjustments can only happen after some slip, as there is no room for questions about government plans, Alert Ribeiro.
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In technological development, the amount plays in favor of China. A March study by Think Tank Macropolo showed that nearly half of the world’s leading artificial intelligence researchers are trained in the Asian country, while the United States contribute about 18% of the academic elite.
“With more people thinking about the same theme, the chances of having something disruptive from China increase,” says Leal. Already the US, “have more money and the most modern semiconductors,” he ponders. But Americans can be left behind in the battle for talent attraction with Trump’s anti-immigration policy: “As much as guidelines focus on less qualified workers, this also generates insecurity in the most qualified.”
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But on the American side, there is “much more market capacity, with incentives and investments” that allow the rapid development of new technologies, recalls Livio Ribeiro. Only in 2025, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet (Google owner) and Microsoft will invest, together, $ 1.84 trillion in artificial intelligence.
Sputnik moment?
One of the most emblematic recent episodes of the technological war was the release of an artificial intelligence assistant developed by a Chinese company that shook the United States technology giants.
For Leal, from G5, the Deepseek episode can be compared to the release of Sputnik, a Soviet satellite who took the Americans by surprise. In the end, Deepseek AI can “make the US not stand still and convinced that they found the ideal business model for AI
But contrary to what happened in the last century, when man’s trip to the moon was a significant milestone in the Cold War and a powerful US response to Sputnik, episodes of the current technological war may not make it clear who is ahead. This is because China and the US rival several fronts – artificial intelligence, semiconductors, smartphones, electric cars.
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“Both are walking, who is closer to self -chair self -charges is China, but the United States are better able to press other countries, you can’t say who is in front,” says Ribeiro of FGV/IBRE.
At this point, you can not say how the war will end, but Leal does not project an end without “structural shaking.” He says that “throughout history, it has always necessary some kind of rupture for a country to be dominant.” This rupture can be technological, but “it won’t be natural.”
Despite classifying China as the best challenger to US dominance, G5’s chief economist thinks the Asian country will not have enough strength to assume the world’s greatest economy post for “serious economic problems that, at some point, at some point will reflect on the ability to compete with Americans. ”
He recalls that Chinese retaliation for American tariffs in Trump’s first term was immediate, but today, with growth losing breath, the counterattack is limited. Therefore, China does not threaten the sovereignty of the United States, at least in the short term, Leal concludes.
While the two powers fight and redefine the direction of the global economy, “we must understand that we have no control towards the new winds and there will be sudden changes in the evaluation of the scenario,” says Livio Ribeiro.
